077
FXUS63 KTOP 311959
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
159 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT BAND OF SNOW MOVES ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION FOR MOST, BUT ISOLATED SPOTS COULD SEE UP TO AROUND
1/2".
- NOTABLY WARMER SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN STAY NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- DRY PATTERN PERSISTS. ONLY A LOW-END (10-20%) CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS
SUPPORTING THE CURRENT SNOWSTORM OVER THE CAROLINAS, WHILE STRONG
UPPER RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE WEST COAST. IN THE MIDDLE, FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THIS FLOW IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IS SUPPORTING A PROGRESSIVE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE NARROW AND FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE
BAND, COUPLED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR, MEANS MOST PLACES
WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THOUGH WITH DECENT LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS
CAN PICK UP A QUICK HALF INCH OR SO, ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW SLICK
SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS. THIS LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE
NEBRASKA BORDER, WHERE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY BETTER MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND VERTICAL MOTION.
IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S SYSTEM, UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW TO RETURN. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, OUR AREA WILL
STAY UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, MAINTAINING A DRY PATTERN.
HOWEVER COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK, THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL STAY MORE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE CORE OF
THE COLD FARTHER AWAY FROM US, AND HELP BRING OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF
MILD, DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SO OUR LINGERING SNOW
COVER SHOULD STEADILY MELT AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS HIGHS BACK TO AROUND 40 TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SURGE OF WARM AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH A MINOR VORT MAX
WEDNESDAY, BUT AS EARLIER MENTIONED THIS PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT
MUCH APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD IS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS BAND SHOULD GENERALLY ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AT ANY ONE
POINT, AND BE RATHER LOW-IMPACT, BUT MAY BRIEFLY BRING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF A FEW MILES. AWAY FROM ANY STEADIER
SNOW, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT
CLEARING TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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