222
FXUS63 KTOP 010437
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1037 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT BAND OF SNOW MOVES ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION FOR MOST, BUT ISOLATED SPOTS COULD SEE UP TO
AROUND 1/2".
- NOTABLY WARMER SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN STAY NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- DRY PATTERN PERSISTS. ONLY A LOW-END (10-20%) CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS
SUPPORTING THE CURRENT SNOWSTORM OVER THE CAROLINAS, WHILE STRONG
UPPER RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE WEST COAST. IN THE MIDDLE, FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THIS FLOW IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IS SUPPORTING A PROGRESSIVE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE NARROW AND FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE
BAND, COUPLED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR, MEANS MOST PLACES
WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THOUGH WITH DECENT LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS
CAN PICK UP A QUICK HALF INCH OR SO, ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW SLICK
SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS. THIS LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE
NEBRASKA BORDER, WHERE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY BETTER MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND VERTICAL MOTION.
IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S SYSTEM, UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW TO RETURN. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, OUR AREA WILL
STAY UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, MAINTAINING A DRY PATTERN.
HOWEVER COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK, THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL STAY MORE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE CORE OF
THE COLD FARTHER AWAY FROM US, AND HELP BRING OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF
MILD, DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SO OUR LINGERING SNOW
COVER SHOULD STEADILY MELT AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS HIGHS BACK TO AROUND 40 TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SURGE OF WARM AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH A MINOR VORT MAX
WEDNESDAY, BUT AS EARLIER MENTIONED THIS PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT
MUCH APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
LAST BAND IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT-FORCED VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
WORKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA APPEARS TO
BE CONSISTENTLY WEAKENING. WILL LEAVE ANY -SN MENTION OUT BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED WITH VEERING WINDS WITH RELATIVELY
MODEST SPEEDS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...POAGE
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