964
FXUS63 KTOP 010817
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
217 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BREAK UP AS IT WORKS INTO
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE.
- WARMING TREND KICKS IN GEAR TODAY WITH A MINOR INTERRUPTION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
- SNOW CHANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING STILL HOLDS LESS
THAN 20% ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH AN OVERALL
DRY PATTERN IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH A
SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP TROUGH WITH CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EASTERN COAST OF THE CONUS WITH A
MAJOR WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE EAST COAST SYSTEM. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGH IS IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
EARLY THIS MORNING A VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE ADVECTING EAST BY SUNRISE. THIS MAY
HELP PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG WITHIN POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION TO HELP SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS SOME
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AREAS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL AS A VERY SUBTLE VORT MAX TRANSITIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TO FULLY SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA.
TODAY, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST EXPANDS INTO THE AREA WITH VERY
SLIGHT HIGH RISES GRADUALLY SETTING UP IN CONCERN WITH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE RETURN SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WHICH HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT A NICE RISE IN TEMPERATURES
WITH CLEARING SKIES INTO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. UPPER 30S
SHOULD BE COMMON BUT 40S INTO THE MID 40S WILL ALSO BE SEEN
ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IF WINDS CALM AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. MOST
LIKELY WOULD BE SHALLOW AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW WITH THE MELTING SNOW
A SOURCE OF NEAR SURFACE BL MOISTURE. MONDAY EXTENDS THE PERIOD OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL NEAR-NORMAL
DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE A QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. COULD SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOME NORTHERN AREAS AS NOCTURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH THE WEAK
CAA HELPS SET UP A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL SATURATION. LIFT
OVERALL IS WEAK SO MAY JUST REMAIN IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS ALSO
CONSIDERING THE SOURCE REGION OF THE INCOMING FRONT WILL BE OF A CP
SOURCE REGION AND THUS OVERALL DRY.
GOOD CONFIDENCE REMAINS WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SPREAD IN FORECAST
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THAT TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SUPPORTED BY THE WESTERN RIDGE BROADENING ACROSS THE AREA
AND MEAN WESTERLIES RESIDING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
SPREADS WIDEN SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE CP AIRMASS
REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BUT LEFT THE FORECAST
INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING THAT EVEN IF
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THAT THE SOURCE
REGION FOR ANY EMERGING WEATHER SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULDN'T FAVOR A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STAY TUNED BUT STILL LOOKS
LIKE NEXT WEEKEND STANDS A SHOT AT BEING PRETTY DECENT FOR THE FIRST
FULL WEEKEND IN FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
LAST BAND IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT-FORCED VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
WORKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA APPEARS TO
BE CONSISTENTLY WEAKENING. WILL LEAVE ANY -SN MENTION OUT BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED WITH VEERING WINDS WITH RELATIVELY
MODEST SPEEDS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...POAGE
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