962
FXUS63 KTOP 012320
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
520 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- LOW CHANCE (15-20%) FOR LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- LOOK FOR A BIGGER WARMUP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US. NORTHWEST MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US, NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.
THE 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF STATES, WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES AT NOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AS
WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US. THE MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTER WAVE LENGTH
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. A
LEE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE TX PNHDL AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS OK. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-70 AND
LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I-70. THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER AS A WEAK PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE/IA AND EASTERN KS INTO MO.
A MORE AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT WESTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. TOPEKA WILL SEE A
HIGH AROUND 40 DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND LREF SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE STRONGER DCVA WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO OK AND WEST TX. BUT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW. IF THE MID LEVELS ARE
UNSATURATED AND THE LOW-LEVEL ARE MOIST ENOUGH, WITH SOME WEAK
ASCENT, THERE COULD POSSIBLY BE SOME PATCHY -FZDZ. HOWEVER,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY SEEING ANY TYPE OF
PRECIP. THE LREF ONLY HAS A 4 TO 10 PERCENT OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OVER 0.01 ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, BUT A BETTER
PROBABILITY OF SEEING 0.01 OR GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MORE AMPLIFIED SECTION OF THE H5 TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS OK AND PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM H5
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S
NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY BUT HIGHS SOUTH OF I-70 AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SEE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. THE WEEKEND LOOKS MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S NORTHEAST AND LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA, WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. COVERAGE AND HOW DENSE FOG WILL BE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR EVEN LIFR VSBY AT
TIMES. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14-15Z MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page