210
FXUS63 KTOP 020835
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
235 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.
- VERY WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL AREAS.
- A NICE WARM-UP REMAINS ON TRACK INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND EVEN
EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
A BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO WORK
OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A BROADER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AN EMBEDDED
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND PROVIDE THE PRIMARY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
WEEK MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING, WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAVE GONE CALM
UNDER A COL AREA SITUATED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A HIGH PRESSURE CELL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. HIGH CIRRUS FROM SPILLOVER OF A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE REMAIN THIN BUT LIKELY STILL SITUATED OVER THE AREA BASED ON
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND RELATIVE ASOS SITES REPORTING SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 25KFT. THUS, THINKING THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY LOW-
LYING PATCHY FOG TO THICKEN TO DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE LOW UNLESS
SUFFICIENT CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HRS BEFORE
SUNRISE. STILL HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RECENT SNOW
MELT SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE.
ALTHOUGH IMPACTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE TIME FRAME IN THE FORECAST WHERE THE
RISK IS GREATEST FOR AT MOST MINOR IMPACTS, MAINLY DUE TO TRAVELING,
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE THROTTLED BACK THE POPS PROVIDED BY THE NBM
DUE TO ENS AND GEFS, ALONG WITH THE ENTIRE SUPPLEMENTARY DATA SETS
SUGGESTING QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW 0.02" TO A TRACE WILL BE MOST
LIKELY. GIVEN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES OF THE OUTPUT DATA SETS
YIELD AT MOST JUST BELOW 30 PERCENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SPOTTY AREAS
AND TREND MAINLY WEST OF NORTH CENTRAL AREAS, HAVE GONE WITH 20-25%
POPS GENERALLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MANHATTAN TO MARYSVILLE AREAS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON THE OUTCOME OF ANY
PRECIPITATION TO BE -FZDZ AS A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPS FOR
A FEW HOURS WITH LIFT DECREASING. THE DGZ DOESN'T APPEAR TO SHOW
MUCH SATURATION, SO HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE OUTCOME OF ANY
PRECIP FOR THE TIME FRAME IN CONCERN LIKELY WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF -
FZDZ IF ANY DOES IMPACT THE AREA. STILL TIME FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE TO DRIFT FURTHER EAST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PATH BUT
MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO TRACK WEST OF THE AREA.
TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK SUGGESTING THAT A WARM-UP IS IN STORE AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH BROADENS AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD
HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60 AT TIMES. EVEN
WITH THIS TREND, CONSIDER THE SPREADS ARE STILL FAIRLY WIDE BUT
APPEAR TO BE OVERALL RISING, SO EVEN HIGH 40S LOOK TO BE THE LOWER
END OF THE SPREAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE A POSSIBLE WESTERN TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
MAY BEGIN BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE LONGER RANGE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
FOG REMAINS THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WHICH
COULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. STILL THINK THE SET-UP WILL LEND
TO AT LEAST PATCHY FOG, BUT HAVE NARROWED THE WINDOW FOR FOG IN
TAFS. REDUCED VSBY IS MORE LIKELY AT KTOP AND KMHK IN THE RIVER
VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF
MONDAY MORNING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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