682
FXUS63 KTOP 022026
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
226 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-THERE ARE A FEW LOW PROBABILITY (20-30% CHANCE) OPPORTUNITIES
FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT-TERM.
-TEMPERATURES WARM NICELY FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY (ROUND
1) AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY (ROUND 2). CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW ON WHETHER FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN P-TYPE WITH ANY PRECIP THAT IMPACTS
THE AREA DURING BOTH TIMEFRAMES. EACH ROUND COULD OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK WAVES MOVING OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
ROUND 1 (TUESDAY) IS MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST-
CENTRAL KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SOME LOW
LEVEL LIFT AND SATURATION THROUGH THE FIRST 4KFT TO 5KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, BUT DRIER AIR EXTENDING THROUGH THE DGZ. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE FAVORED P-TYPE, BUT HAVE
KEPT MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON ONE DOMINANT TYPE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SFC LATE IN THE MORNING AND
MIDDAY, BUT IF PRECIP OCCURS PRIOR TO THIS TIMEFRAME, SLICK SPOTS
COULD RESULT.
FOR ROUND 2 (TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED), THE AREA IMPACTED BY LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL KS. RECENT TRENDS FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE
SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ AND AM THINKING P-TYPE MIGHT BE MORE
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. STILL, HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY AS THE COLUMN WORKS TO SATURATE. EITHER
WAY, THE MAIN MESSAGE IS TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY FORM OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN QUICKLY CAUSE SLICK ROAD AND
WALK WAYS AND OFTEN CATCHES PEOPLE OFF GUARD AS A GLAZE OF ICE
CAN BE DIFFICULT TO SEE ON ROADS.
BEYOND MIDWEEK, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON WARMER WEATHER RETURNING
TO THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OUT WEST. SPREAD FROM
THE NBM IS LOW ON THURSDAY WITH THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE ONLY
RANGING FROM 54F TO 58F. WHILE REMAINING WARM, THE SPREAD ON
TEMPERATURES INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE
WELL INTO THE 60S. HAVE NOT YET ADJUSTED THE NBM FORECAST AT THAT
RANGE, WHICH STICKS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE SPREAD,
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTING ABOVE
15KFT. SEEING ENOUGH SIGNAL FROM MODELS TO FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS
PASSES OVERHEAD. THERE COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY TOMORROW, SO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE ADDITION OF PRECIP WITH THE NEXT FEW UPDATES IF
CONFIDENCE GROWS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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