383
FXUS63 KTOP 092320
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TODAY AND
TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS.
- THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON, BETTER
CHANCES EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAIL AND WIND REMAIN THE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARDS ALONG WITH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED
MORE RAINFALL.
- THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE MAIN WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SITUATED IN
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. A WARM DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVING BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREA-
WIDE. WITH A FEW HOURS LEFT TO GO BEFORE PEAK HEATING, STILL
THINKING WE COULD MAKE A RUN AT RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. MOST OF THE
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH HAVE BEEN IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE RH IS
HIGHER, HELPING TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FAIRLY LIMITED, BUT
STILL JUST ENOUGH TO BE IN THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH RANGE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THROUGH THE DAY, A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH OVER THE ROCKIES, WHILE THE CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO PHASE INTO THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN AS IT COMES NORTHEAST
INTO TX. ALTHOUGH SOME RECENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IT MAY NOT
MERGE COMPLETELY AND INSTEAD TRY TO CUT OFF AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME, A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM FRONT IN THE
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE BEHIND
IT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THAT ENVIRONMENT;
HOWEVER, A LOT OF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. WHILE THIS IS THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIO, IF STORMS
CAN BREAK THE CAP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON (4-7PM), THIS WOULD PROVIDE
A NARROW WINDOW FOR STORMS WITH THE GREATEST SEVERITY. PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE EXACTLY THIS RISK IS, BUT AT THIS
TIME I-35 AND SOUTH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA IF THIS
SITUATION OCCURS. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING (7PM OR LATER) AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
KICKS IN. THESE STORMS LOOK TO BE A BIT MORE ELEVATED AND WOULD
PRESENT A HAIL AND WIND THREAT, IMPACTING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM AROUND ABILENE TO HIAWATHA. GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF STORM
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY AS AREAS THAT SAW
MORE RAIN A FEW DAYS AGO, PLUS THERE COULD BE SOME COMPONENT OF
STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RENEWED
FLOODING CONCERNS IN EAST CENTRAL KS AS WELL. THERE SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK OVERNIGHT AS THIS ROUND OF STORMS PUSHES NORTH
AND ADDITIONAL POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST BY MID-DAY WEDNESDAY, ENDING THE RAINFALL
WITH COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE, BUT LOOKING MORE SEASONAL BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOW-LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY TURN BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZIER DAY ALONG WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS, ALSO
LEADING TO OUR MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WITH US INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. THAT SAID, SPREADS WIDEN IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA BY
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO COME
THROUGH THE CENTRAL US TO START OFF NEXT WEEK, AND THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE OUR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES. POPS
REMAIN LOW WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT, BUT IT DOES LOOK AS
THOUGH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED BY NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR LLWS BETWEEN
09-13Z AT KTOP/KFOE AS WINDS AT 1500FT INCREASE TO 30-35KTS
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. IT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL
TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR NOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CIGS MOVE
TOWARDS KTOP/KFOE TUESDAY MORNING, BUT BEST CHANCES REMAIN EAST
OF THESE TERMINALS. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE NEAR THE
END OR JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
TODAY, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGH TO VERY HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GENERALLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL RATES WITH
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
OUT OF THE WSW AND GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO MID AFTERNOON
AND CALM INTO THE EVENING WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 20
MPH FOR MOST LIMITING OVERALL FIRE DANGER. MINRH VALUES TO THE LOW
20 PERCENT RANGES OVER WESTERN AREAS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGES
OVER THE EAST.
A FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH OVERALL WEAK WINDS
IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AREAS ALONG THE LIKELY POSITION OF THE
DEVELOPING FRONT. OVER EAST-CENTRAL AREAS, WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONGER AND DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THE OFFSET BY INCREASING
MOISTURE BRINGING MINRH VALUES TO 40-50 PERCENT RANGES.
THURSDAY MAY BRING THE NEXT MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
AFTERNOON, SW WINDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND COINCIDE WITH
DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING TO HELP OVERLAP WITH LOW MINRH VALUES TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LOWER OVER WESTERN AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RH VALUES OVER EASTERN AREAS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGES
BUT ALL AREAS MAY STILL SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
MARCH 10 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST HIGH
------------------------------------------
TOPEKA 84, SET IN 1967 83
CONCORDIA 84, SET IN 2025 70
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...DRAKE
CLIMATE...PICHA/POAGE
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