327
FXUS63 KTOP 101757
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1257 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SOME SPOTS AGAIN TODAY.
- A COLD FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING THEN TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
- HAIL AND WIND HAZARDS STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY WITH INITIAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THEN TRANSITION TO MORE FLOODING RISK
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL, TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING LATER AND FURTHER
SOUTH FOR THE HIGHEST RISK SCENARIOS.
- THURSDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER WILL SET UP WITH
POSSIBLE HEADLINES NEEDED DURING LATER UPDATES.
- COOLER ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS ADVERTISED WITH BROAD
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH A DIGGING TROUGH NOW
ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHER ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
HAS BEGUN LIFTING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION NOW ADVANCING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHER MEXICO. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG AND GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF I-35
CORRIDOR AT THIS HOUR. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED AND HAS
MIGRATED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THIS AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE
INTO NORTHERN MO AND OUT OF THE REGION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THIS A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GENERALLY ALONG I-70 THEN SOUTH ALONG THE TURNPIKE, A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNDER A RATHER STRONGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. BY THIS EVENING THE TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH THE
FRONT STEADILY PUSHING SOUTHEAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPS DON'T ERODE THE
CAP UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST AREA FOR A SHORT
WINDOW OF SEVERE STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT INTO
EARLY EVENING. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT IF
STORMS DO FORM OVER THE AREA. STILL MORE PARALLEL IN ORIENTATION TO
THE FRONT, SO WOULD EXPECT THAT A COUPLE INTENSE STORMS COULD FORM
OVER THE AREA POSING MOSTLY A HAIL THREAT AND COULD ALSO POSE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE SHORT-TERM HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST THESE
STORMS WOULD QUICKLY UNDERGO INTERACTIONS WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THE SHEAR-TO-FRONT ORIENTATION. THIS WOULD OVERALL BEGIN TO LIMIT
THE INDIVIDUAL STORM SEVERE THREAT THEN THE FOCUS WOULD BE STORMS
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH LIKELY WOULD BE ELEVATED INTO THE MID TO LATE
EVENING AND PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS WHERE THE FLOODING
THREAT WOULD RISE BEFORE STORMS SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL, LOOK
FOR THE SEVERE STORM THREAT TO FOCUS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A NON-
ZERO FLOODING THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS SOME AREAS
THAT MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT SATURATED FROM STORMS LATE LAST WEEK.
COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY THEN A RETURN FLOW
SETUP INTO THURSDAY GIVES WAY TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION). QUASIZONAL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A LEE TROUGH AND RETURN FLOW BRINGING INCREASING H85
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. ANOTHER
LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY WITH A
COUPLE DAY COOL DOWN AND LIKELY COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX TO
BRIEFLY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SW BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THOUGH MHK IS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD SEE LESS WIND COMPARED TO TOP/FOE. A SHIFT TO THE NW IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE FROPA. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
TS THIS EVENING IS FAVORED SOUTH OF TERMINALS, BUT COULD SEE
SOME POST-FRONTAL STORMS MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
COULD BE HIGHER IN IMPACTS TO TERMINALS, BUT OPTED TO ADD
MENTION DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME. WILL REFINE TIMING
AND MAY ADJUST BETWEEN PREVAILING AND PROB30 GROUPS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, LOWER CIGS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR THEM TO BRIEFLY
DROP TO MVFR LATE THIS PERIOD. CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST JUST
BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
FIRE DANGER TODAY LOOKS TO BE HIGH TO VERY HIGH OVER CENTRAL INTO
EAST-CENTRAL AREAS FOR PART OF THE DAY AS SW WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MINRH
VALUES AROUND THE MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE. A FRONT SETS UP ACROSS
THE AREA INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE MARKED BY A
DECREASE IN THE WINDS OVERALL IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. WINDS NORTH OF
I-70 BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE THE FRONT
ORGANIZES AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
EAST-CENTRAL COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A STEADY DROP-OFF IN
WIND SPEEDS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE FIRE DANGER REMAINING.
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
STRONG SSW WINDS SET UP INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE WINDS ARE TRENDING HIGHER ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT
NOW, LOOKING FOR MINRH VALUES TO BE AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LOWER
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AREAS BUT
DEEPER MIXING COULD ALLOW FOR OVERALL LOWER RH VALUES IN REALITY.
THE WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT THE HIGHER RH
VALUES WILL BE OFFSET, SO IF WINDS ULTIMATELY TREND HIGHER THEN
STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD FIRE CONCERNS.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
MARCH 10 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST HIGH
------------------------------------------
TOPEKA 84, SET IN 1967 83
CONCORDIA 84, SET IN 2025 71
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...PICHA
FIRE WEATHER...DRAKE
CLIMATE...DRAKE/POAGE
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