276
FXUS63 KTOP 110509
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1209 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE) IN EAST CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-35. SOME OF THESE COULD
POSE A RISK FOR PRIMARILY HAIL AND WIND, THEN FLOODING
OVERNIGHT.
- THURSDAY BRINGS WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER WEDNESDAY, THEN TREND WARMER TO THE
END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN TO WINTER EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY WHILE
A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT HALFWAY ACROSS AS OF 19Z, ALONG A
LINE FROM SALINA TO HIAWATHA, JUST BARELY WEST OF MHK. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WHILE LOCATIONS BEHIND IT HAVE SEEN MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND ARE STUCK IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FOCUS HAS BEEN ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. CAMS
SEEM TO BE IN DECENTLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON STORMS FIRING ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. THE
NAM NEST HAS THE EARLIEST INITIATION TIME AROUND 00Z, WITH SOME
OTHERS HOLDING OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 02-03Z. SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE 2000-3000 J/KG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IF
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ON THE EARLY SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE, THAT WOULD
PROVIDE A VERY NARROW WINDOW FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS. FOR THIS
REASON, CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO
WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT THAT
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD END QUICKLY ONCE THEY INTERACT WITH
EACH OTHER AND CONGEAL INTO A LINE. ADDITIONALLY, THE LONGER
STORMS HOLD OFF THIS EVENING PAST SUNSET, THE MORE WE LOSE OUR
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE WITH STORMS MORE LIKELY BECOMING
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL 1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH
IN THAT MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO. THIS WOULD PRESENT MORE OF A
HAIL AND WIND THREAT AT THE ONSET. EVENTUALLY, WITH SHEAR BEING
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, ANY STORM HAZARDS WOULD
TRANSITION MORE TO A FLOOD CONCERN AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS STORMS BACKBUILD POTENTIALLY OVER SOME OF THE SAME
PLACES THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED MORE RAINFALL. SOME POST-FRONTAL
STORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-70,
ALTHOUGH THESE WOULD HAVE LESS INSTABILITY AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY
BENEFICIAL RAIN.
ALL RAIN IS PROGGED MOVE EAST BY MID-MORNING WITH A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE
50S WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FULLY MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT SFC HIGH QUICKLY GETS PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THURSDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS HELPS TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CREATES A WINDY DAY
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE DAY TO
WATCH FOR ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AREA-WIDE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30-
40MPH ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER AMID A DRY AIR MASS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES. A MORE POTENT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW TO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. POPS HAVE INCREASED SOME
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOK
LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AT THE VERY
LEAST, MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MAKE A BRIEF RETURN
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR BECOMING MVFR AROUND 12Z. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN
EAST OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY AROUND 10Z
NEAR ALL TERMINALS. THIS ADDITIONAL EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THAT AREA BY 15Z. LOW
STRATUS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
FIRE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY IN SOME PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY GUSTING TO 30-40MPH. RH VALUES ARE
STILL IN FLUX, LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE EXACTLY WE COULD
GET TO 20% OR LOWER, BUT THIS APPEARS MOST FAVORED IN PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS. EAST CENTRAL KS AREAS COULD POSSIBLY
REMAIN ABOVE 30%, BUT IT STILL DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A GOOD DAY FOR
BURNING WITH THE WINDS IN PLACE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE VERY HIGH
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER AREA-WIDE AT THE VERY LEAST AT THIS POINT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...JONES
FIRE WEATHER...PICHA
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