037
FXUS63 KTOP 110718
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
218 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (NO
SEVERE STORMS).
- EXTREME FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
- COOLER TODAY, WARM TO END THE WEEK AND THEN A RETURN TO
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA,
BRINGING COOLER AND MORE DRY AIR. LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP, LEADING TO BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND. TODAY WILL WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS A RESULT,
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S.
TOMORROW, WE WILL SEE A QUICK CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. THESE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (25 MPH
GUSTING TO 45 MPH) MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE CONCERNS. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.
A WARM-UP INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 70S BY SATURDAY.
A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS FAVORED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. SOME LIGHT RAIN, OR EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
GIVEN HOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE, COULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT, BREEZY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE WE HAVE RETURNED TO WINTER.
LOWS MONDAY MORNING MAY DIP INTO THE TEENS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR BECOMING MVFR AROUND 12Z. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN
EAST OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY AROUND 10Z
NEAR ALL TERMINALS. THIS ADDITIONAL EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THAT AREA BY 15Z. LOW
STRATUS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL,
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF EXTREME
FIRE DANGER THURSDAY.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND (25MPH GUSTING TO 45MPH) AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (AROUND 20%) WILL COMBINE WITH DRY FUELS TO
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER IN THE WATCH AREA.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AND WIND MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG.
ADDITIONALLY, AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 HAD SOME DECENT RAINFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IF WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE
TO TREND HIGHER AND/OR HUMIDITY LOWER, ADDITIONAL AREAS MAY BE
ADDED TO THE WATCH. REGARDLESS, AREAS THAT AREN'T IN EXTREME
FIRE DANGER WILL BE AT A MINIMUM IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER AND
THEREFORE BURNING IS NOT ADVISED AREAWIDE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
FIRE WEATHER...JONES
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