072
FXUS63 KTOP 111851
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
151 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
- WARM TO END THE WEEK AND THEN A RETURN TO WINTER- LIKE
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
LATE THIS MORNING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EXTENDED FROM MN,
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MO. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TX INTO
SOUTHEAST OK AND CENTRAL AR. LOW-LEVEL CAA CONTINUED ACROSS THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES AT 11 AM WERE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS KS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. IF WE KEEP THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S,
IF THERE IS CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES, HIGH COULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAKE IT EVEN FEEL COLDER.
THURSDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL VEER TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CAUSE A
LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LA. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEPER MIXING WILL CAUSE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH. THIS WILL BE JUST BELOW A WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO AT THIS
TIME, I WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CWA. HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS WITH
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY NIGHT, AN H5 TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO NORTHERN MI. THIS WILL CAUSE A SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL PASS
DRY AS THERE WILL BE NO RESIDUAL MOISTURE RETURN.
FRIDAY, WILL BE COOLER AS THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
OK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES FROM I-70 AND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA.
SATURDAY, THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY AND LOW-
LEVEL WAA WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S
NORTH TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, AN H5 TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM
WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGER ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE H5 WILL REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BUT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK ASCENT WILL CAUSE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A TRACE TO A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE SET IN THE MORNING IN THE 50S ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS AND 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
US WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST, WITH LOWER 60S WEST.
TUESDAY EVEN WARMER WITH UPPER 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
20Z, THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED. AFTER 20Z, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 12
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST,
AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KS FROM NOON THURSDAY THROUGH 8 PM
THURSDAY EVENING.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF
THURSDAY. MINIMUM RHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 18 TO
22 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAINS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY ONLY SEE RHS OF 25
TO 30 PERCENT. FUELS WILL BE DORMANT AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A COUNCIL
GROVE, TO TOPEKA, AND OSKALOOSA LINE. THE AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-35 WILL HAVE DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER, DUE TO
SATURATED GROUND, OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, THIS AREA WILL
HAVE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, SO ANY WILD FIRES THAT CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT, THE
SHIFTING WINDS COULD MAKE CONTROLLING THESE FIRES DIFFICULT.
ALL OUT DOOR BURNING PLANNED ON THURSDAY NEEDS TO BE POSTPONED.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GARGAN
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