493
FXUS63 KTOP 121947
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
247 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE WITH GUSTY WINDS, LOW RH, AND DRY FUELS. VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER CONTINUES ELSEWHERE.
- BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40-50MPH POSSIBLE. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 2AM.
- BRIEF WARM-UP SATURDAY, THEN WINTER QUICKLY RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
OUR AREA IS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AT THE UPPER LEVELS, AS
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH HEADS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED SOUTH WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HAS DEVELOPED IN ND/MT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE. THIS HAS LED
TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 30-50MPH (WEAKER EAST, STRONGEST WEST). THE WAA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. COMBINING THE WINDS WITH THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL KEEP VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER IN PLACE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE RH BEGINS A SLOW RECOVERY INTO
TONIGHT. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 2AM. THE HRRR/RAP SHOW A SWATH
OF GUSTS NEAR 45MPH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WHEREAS THE HREF MEAN LOOKED MORE BORDERLINE ON GUSTS WITH A BETTER
SIGNAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING CRITERIA DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HREF HAVE SHOWN A 60-80%
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 45MPH GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS,
WHEREAS THE HRRR/RAP INDIVIDUALLY SHOW SOME SIGNAL FOR THIS BUT
PERHAPS MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE. WHILE THE HRRR/RAP MAY BE
HANDLING THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE BETTER, THINKING IT MAKES SOME
SENSE TO KEEP THE HIGHER GUSTS PERSISTING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60 KTS OVERHEAD AND SOME MIXING SHOULD
KEEP BLUSTERY WINDS GOING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT, THAT SHOULD DECREASE THE WINDS QUITE A BIT.
MUCH LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE FRIDAY AS A SFC RIDGE
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK A TOUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH RAPID SFC CYCLOGENESIS ULTIMATELY BRINGING A POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIFT
A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY, HELPING TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. BIG CHANGES ARE TO FOLLOW
FOR SUNDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING AND LEADS TO
TEMPERATURES TUMBLING AFTERWARDS, FALLING TO THE 30S AND 40S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN LOOK BLUSTERY, AND IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD, ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING RELATED TO
WHETHER WE'LL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT, OR IF IT ALL
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE COMES IN. EITHER WAY, SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED TO BE UNDER AN INCH, BUT SOME HIGH-END
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN INCH OR TWO, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS TOWARD A MID-WEEK WARM-UP AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN
THIS PERIOD. SW WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AND LOOK BLUSTERY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
30-40 KTS. HREF HAS HAD A STRONG SIGNAL FOR WINDS TO THIS LEVEL
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ITS LAST COUPLE OF RUNS, SO
OPTED TO KEEP SFC WINDS UP UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE LLWS EVEN WITH A 55-60 KT LLJ
OVERHEAD, BUT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TURBULENT CONDITIONS IN THE
LOW LEVELS. AFTER FROPA OCCURS, WINDS TURN TO THE NW AND SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
UPDATED AT 136 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST,
AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KS FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 18-22% RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SEE HUMIDITY IN 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER,
THIS AREA WILL STILL HAVE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. A SURFACE FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH
BUT WIND WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING).
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
FIRE WEATHER...JONES
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