733
FXUS63 KTOP 140532
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1232 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY STRONG WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 50 TO 60 MPH COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW COULD CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KS WHERE 1 INCH OF SNOW MAY FALL.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WIND CHILLS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO MONDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 25%, AND
WIND GUST APPROACH 25 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MI, WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MI.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE A LEE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK, WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
WHILE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S WEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, THEN DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH
APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NE AND DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE THE
IA/MO BORDER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z SUN. OUR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR
IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTHWEST, TO
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTHEAST. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH THROUGH THE DAY AS A TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS KS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY
ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER, AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE DCVA AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH
WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND IA, INTO
WI, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR LIGHT SNOW AS THE H5 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE LREF SHOWS ONLY A 20 PERCENT OF 1 INCH OF SNOW
OR MORE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. SO IN AREAS
WHERE THERE CAN BE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES, THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA WILL ONLY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND SKIES CLEARING LATE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST IF THERE REMAINS SOME
SNOW COVER.
MONDAY, AFTER THE COLD MORNING START, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTHWEST.
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THINK THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH IT'S BIAS TO BE TOO COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. GOOD MIXING
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ENTRAIN DRY AIR
INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP WARMER TEMPS IN PLACE. THE TURBULENT
MIXING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL SATURDAY
NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF A SENECA, TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MINIMUM RHS WILL BE 25 TO
28 PERCENT. IF WIND GUSTS INCREASE AND RHS ARE A BIT LOWER THEN
SOME EXTREME FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...WOLTERS
FIRE WEATHER...GARGAN
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