056
FXUS63 KTOP 141055
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
555 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE.
- POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH.
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO
BY MONDAY MORNING.
- THE COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO BE TEMPORARY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ZONAL. SURFACE OBS HAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST RIDGING INTO EASTERN KS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE TX
GULF COAST WERE ALREADY BRINGING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH.
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NEB AND MOVES INTO
IA THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A VERY STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH GOING WITHOUT CHANGES. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND NEARLY PERPENDICULAR ISALLOBARIC WIND FLOW MAKE A
STRONG CASE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES WITH UP TO 60KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER. SO THE SIGNALS FOR
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. AS FOR PRECIP, MODELS (AND
SPECIFICALLY THE GFS) HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH QPF AS THE STRUGGLE TO
SATURATE MID LEVELS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SATURATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WERE SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING AN INCH OF SNOW AT
AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST KS. THESE PROBABILITIES DROP
OFF AS ONE GOES WEST AND SOUTH. SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
MINOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL FALLING SNOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH
IS GOING TO MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SINCE SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH, FEEL LIKE IT IS BETTER TO BE
MORE TACTICAL WITH ANY WINTER HEADLINES AS THEY WILL BE THE
SECONDARY IMPACT TO THE STRONG WINDS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND DAY BREAK. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING FAIRLY MILD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUED TO BLEND THE TWENTY FIFTH PERCENTILE OF
THE NBM TO BETTER REFLECT THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION AND MID LEVEL
SATURATION EXIT EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES WITH VERY COLD AIR SETTLING IN.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z ENSEMBLES SHOWS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
RIDGE WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS. SO PREDICTABILITY
OF THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE GOOD AND LENDS BETTER CONFIDENCE TO THE
NBM INITIALIZATION. WARMER TEMPS INTO THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK ARE
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HYBRID GEFS AND AIGEFS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE NAM REMAINS THE ONLY SOLUTION TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW MVFR CIGS
ADVECTING INTO THE TERMINALS BY 12Z SUNDAY. SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
IN THE RESTRICTIVE CIGS. THINK I WILL INCLUDE A SCT GROUP FOR NOW AND
KEEP A VFR FORECAST. LATER SHIFTS CAN LOOK AT THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS DRIVEN BY THE WINDS, WHICH SHOULD PICK UP
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. STILL LOOKS LIKE
TURBULENT MIXING MAY MITIGATE WIND SHEAR CHANCES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KS
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN DOESN'T REALLY KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. SO RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER EASTERN KS.
THERE COULD BE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. BUT WITH RH
REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT, THERE ARE NO PLANS FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY ARE CENTERED ENTIRELY ON THE STRONG
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 50 MPH AS THE FRONT PASSES, AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO KEEP RH VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT.
MONDAY MAY BE A POTENTIAL RED FLAG DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES
OVER THE AREA. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO BRING RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND
20 PERCENT WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 30 MPH.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOLTERS
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