575
FXUS63 KTOP 142319
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
619 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY EXIST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
- POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM SUNDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH.
- COLD AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY LEAVE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS - GENERALLY 0.5" OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS.
- BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. COLD AIR
QUICKLY EXITS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE WY AND CO ROCKIES AND HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN A LEE CYCLONE
ACROSS EASTERN WY AND NORTHEAST CO. WAA TO THE EAST OF THE LEE
CYCLONE HAS HELPED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
THE LOW 60S BY MID DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S (FROM EAST TO CENTRAL KS RESPECTIVELY). SOME
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY BRIEFLY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM,
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, SEE THE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, PUSHING THE LEE CYCLONE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BECOME VERY COMPACT LEADING TO
VERY STRONG WINDS. BL MIXING UP TO 850 MB WILL ADDITIONALLY HELP TO
BRING DOWN 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD
LEAD TO DANGEROUS CONDITIONS OUTDOORS, ESPECIALLY DRIVING LARGE
VEHICLES AND NEAR AREAS OF LOOSE OBJECTS. IT SEEMED THAT THIS WAS TO
BE AN ANOMALOUS EVENT AFTER LOOKING AT THE EURO EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX AND SHIFT OF TAILS. IT ALLUDED TO THIS EVENT BEING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY METRICS AND A HIGH CHANCE (80%+) FOR A VERY UNUSUAL
OR EXTREME EVENT TO OCCUR. THIS HELPED TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE
THAT A LARGE AREA OF NORTHEAST KS WOULD SEE SPORADIC WIND GUSTS
OF 60 MPH (60-80% CHANCES). THEREFORE, A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM SUNDAY.
DOUGLAS, FRANKLIN AND ANDERSON COUNTIES WERE UPGRADED TO A WIND
ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE IN 60 MPH GUSTS WAS LOWER. STILL, THOSE
AREAS WILL STILL SEE GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, SOME RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE EXPECTED THAT COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITIES A BIT. SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AT 0.5" OR
LESS. BETTER SNOW CHANCES SHOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WHERE LESS LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MIX INTO THE STORM
SYSTEM.
VERY COLD AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND
CHILLS NEAR SUNRISE BELOW ZERO. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STICK AROUND
LONG AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY HITTING THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S! ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH AT TIMES HIGHER GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS WHERE WINDS WEAKEN AND BACK MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS KTOP. SOME LLWS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS A BRIEF INVERSION SETS UP DURING THESE PERIODS,
BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE MAIN CONCERN THOUGH IS STILL WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AROUND 12-14Z. WINDS QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME VERY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT,
SUSTAINED 25-30 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KTS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVING WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. LASTLY, COULD SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
LIGHT BUT WIND-BLOWN SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SOME BRIEF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY EXIST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RH
VALUES DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 25-30% RANGE. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO 2500-3000 FEET BY
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. RH WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER THIS EVENING DUE
TO THE WELL MIXED BL THROUGH THE EVENING - POSSIBLY GETTING ABOVE
40% BY 9-10 PM.
MINIMAL FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD EXIST SUNDAY AS RH VALUES WILL STAY
ABOVE 40%. WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN AND MAKE FIRES DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL, SO OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED.
THE NEXT ELEVATED FIRE DAY WILL BE MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM
SYSTEM. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND 18-25% AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL SET UP. WITH
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY, THIS COULD CREATE CONDITIONS
WHERE GRASSES DRY QUICKLY AND ENABLE FIRES TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC
BEHAVIOR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED, BUT
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ058.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR KSZ040-KSZ056-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...GRIESEMER
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