227
FXUS63 KTOP 150743
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
243 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY STRONG WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE LIKELY TO GUST BETWEEN 40
AND 60 MPH TODAY. THESE WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES.
- SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW
COULD SEVERELY LIMIT VISIBILITIES WITH SUDDEN CHANGES IN SNOW
SQUALLS.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
07Z WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE OBS PLACED A LOW OVER CENTRAL KS.
THERE ISN'T MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IS GOING TO BRING VERY STRONG WINDS
TO THE AREA TODAY AND A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY REMAIN
IN PLACE. FORTUNATELY MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. LIMITED MOISTURE AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS
PASS BY IS THE MAIN REASON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. STILL ANY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CAUSE RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. AS FOR THE WINDS, MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE ISALLOBARS AND 3HR PRESSURE RISES GREATER THAN
10 MB. ADDITIONALLY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 50KT WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES CONDUCIVE FOR THESE WINDS
TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE 00Z HREF AND 01Z NBM SHOW PROBABILITIES
FOR GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH NEAR 100 PERCENT. BASED ON THE MODEL PROGS
THINK SPORADIC GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ARE PLAUSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE ARE NO WINTER HEADLINES POSTED DUE TO THE LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK
OUT FOR SUDDEN VISIBILITY CHANGES SHOULD A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS. THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
LIKE IT IS ZERO TO 10 BELOW WHEN PEOPLE ARE HEADING OUT TO WORK IN
THE MORNING.
THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY
EXPANDS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS ON THE
00Z ENSEMBLES SHOWS MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD ONLY HAVE MINOR INFLUENCE OVER THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HERE.
PREDICTABILITY OF THIS PATTERN LOOKS GOOD WITH THE NBM AND ENSEMBLES
SHOWING SMALL SPREADS IN TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING SPREADS
SHOW UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ARE NOTED AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE STUCK WITH THE
MEAN SOLUTION FOR HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S, BUT THE POSSIBLE RANGE
OF OUTCOMES SPAN MORE THAN 25 DEGREES FROM THE NBM AND REFLECT THE
UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT WE END UP ON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WINDS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE FORECAST WITH THE FROPA TIMED FOR
MID MORNING. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POST
FRONTAL. AND I CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AT TOP AND FOE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED
WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM REDUCED VSBY. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 35KT AND 50KT BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO THE
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY THE VERY STRONG WINDS
TODAY. FALLING TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 50
PERCENT. THIS WITH THE CLOUD COVER TENDS TO KEEP THE RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE. I THINK THIS UNDER
REPRESENTS THE RISK PRESENTED BY THE WINDS AND WILL GO WITH A
BLANKET VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY AS ANY FIRE MAY BE HARD TO
CHASE DOWN.
THE FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY HINGES ON HOW FAST WINDS SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR WITH THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT THE
FORECAST STILL SHOWS SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
FIRE CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOK MORE MANAGEABLE WITH
LIGHT WINDS EVEN THOUGH TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ058.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
FOR KSZ040-KSZ056-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOLTERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page