735
FXUS63 KTOP 151843
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
143 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY STRONG WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE LIKELY TO GUST
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH TODAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED 60 MPH WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND
POWER LINES.
- SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW
COULD SEVERELY LIMIT VISIBILITIES WITH SUDDEN CHANGES IN SNOW
SQUALLS.
- THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS MONDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW ZERO.
-
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LATE THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE STRONGER DCVA AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS EAST NORTHWEST NE/ SOUTHEAST/SD AND POINTS EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MI AND NORTHERN IA.
THE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA DURING
MORNING HOURS IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN OK, EXTENDING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL. THEN NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST IL.
EARLIER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 7 AM AND 8 AM WE HAD SOME 58-60 MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KS. WINDS WERE INITIALLY
STRONGEST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MAY PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN IA/ WESTERN IL, CAUSING A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE H5 TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME BANDS OF
SNOW, WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SNOW BANDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THERE MAY BE UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL BY 00Z
MON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. IF THERE IS ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON GRASSY
SURFACES, THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MAY CAUSE ENOUGH BLOWING SNOW
TO LIMIT VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT, THE H5 TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY, WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
TX. STRONGER ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL CAUSE ANY LIGHT SNOW TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THE STRONGER WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO UNDER 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DROP DOWN IN THE 1 TO 6 BELOW ZERO RANGE. ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES, MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WIL DROP TO NEAR 10
BELOW.
MONDAY, MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS ALONG THE NE BORDER. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE INTO OK AND TX BY MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATES. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. IF YOU HAVE ANY PLANTS OUTDOOR, THEY WILL
NEED TO BE BROUGHT INDOORS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY, THE H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST TO
MID TO UPPER 50S WEST.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WARM. AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST US WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGHS
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S, WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE CWA GETTING BACKED DOOR BY A WEAK FRONT, WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE FARTHER WEST WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT. THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS NEARLY 20 DEGREES, SO WE COULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY OR LOWER 80S.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
ANY ONGOING FIRES TODAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT GUSTS MAY BE OVER 30 MPH IN THE EARLY AFTER
NOON HOURS BUT MAY SUBSIDE UNDER 25 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RHS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE RFD HAS WIDESPREAD VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
CWA.
THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH WIND SPEEDS AND MINIMUM RHS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A SNOW BAND IS HEADING FOR THE KTOP AND KFOE TERMINALS FROM
1750Z-1900Z. THE SNOW BAND MAY DROP VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1SM AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS. AFTER 19Z THERE MAY BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 2Z MON. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT THIS EVENING TO VFR AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 6Z.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS OF 30 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 45KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING UNDER 25 KTS, WITH GUSTS UNDER 35 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ENTIRELY DRIVEN BY THE VERY STRONG WINDS
TODAY. FALLING TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 50
PERCENT. THIS WITH THE CLOUD COVER TENDS TO KEEP THE RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE. I THINK THIS UNDER
REPRESENTS THE RISK PRESENTED BY THE WINDS AND WILL GO WITH A
BLANKET VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY AS ANY FIRE MAY BE HARD TO
CHASE DOWN.
THE FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY HINGES ON HOW FAST WINDS SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR WITH THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT THE
FORECAST STILL SHOWS SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
FIRE CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOK MORE MANAGEABLE WITH
LIGHT WINDS EVEN THOUGH TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR KSZ040-KSZ056-
KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GARGAN
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