816
FXUS63 KTOP 160518
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1218 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING, BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS MONDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW ZERO.
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- A WARMING TREND COMMENCES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS REACH BACK IN THE
70S BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LATE THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE STRONGER DCVA AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS EAST NORTHWEST NE/ SOUTHEAST/SD AND POINTS EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MI AND NORTHERN IA.
THE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA DURING
MORNING HOURS IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN OK, EXTENDING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL. THEN NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST IL.
EARLIER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 7 AM AND 8 AM WE HAD SOME 58-60 MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KS. WINDS WERE INITIALLY
STRONGEST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MAY PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN IA/ WESTERN IL, CAUSING A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE H5 TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME BANDS OF
SNOW, WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SNOW BANDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THERE MAY BE UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL BY 00Z
MON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM. IF THERE IS ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON GRASSY
SURFACES, THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MAY CAUSE ENOUGH BLOWING SNOW
TO LIMIT VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT, THE H5 TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY, WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
TX. STRONGER ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL CAUSE ANY LIGHT SNOW TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THE STRONGER WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO UNDER 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DROP DOWN IN THE 1 TO 6 BELOW ZERO RANGE. ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES, MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WIL DROP TO NEAR 10
BELOW.
MONDAY, MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS ALONG THE NE BORDER. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE INTO OK AND TX BY MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATES. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. IF YOU HAVE ANY PLANTS OUTDOOR, THEY WILL
NEED TO BE BROUGHT INDOORS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY, THE H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST TO
MID TO UPPER 50S WEST.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS WARM. AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST US WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGHS
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S, WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE CWA GETTING BACKED DOOR BY A WEAK FRONT, WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE FARTHER WEST WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT. THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS NEARLY 20 DEGREES, SO WE COULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY OR LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR A BAND OF MVFR CIGS
DIVING PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD, EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
ANY ONGOING FIRES TODAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH THE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT GUSTS MAY BE OVER 30 MPH IN THE EARLY AFTER
NOON HOURS BUT MAY SUBSIDE UNDER 25 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RHS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE RFD HAS WIDESPREAD VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
CWA.
THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH WIND SPEEDS AND MINIMUM RHS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GARGAN
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