855
FXUS63 KTOP 161106
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
606 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW.
- NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AT 30-35 MPH PERSIST THIS MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS
ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WARMING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK
INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE POTENT MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY'S STRONG WINDS AND
SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO FALL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE
BRISK WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO AND TEN BELOW. WITH A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD REMAINING IN PLACE TODAY, EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST AT 30-35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY WITH CAA
LIMITING WARMING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST KANSAS TO MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND YESTERDAY'S FRONT IS VERY DRY AND THE COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN THIS EVENING, ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL FAVOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH. SPREADS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
ARE LARGER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN 36 HOURS OUT AS WARM-AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OFFSET BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
THICK CLOUD COVER IS AND HOW LONG IT LASTS THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN THE
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. A
PERTURBATION IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MID-
LEVEL SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, BUT VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700MB MY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND. LOOKS TO BE LOW IMPACT EVEN
IF SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAKES IT THROUGH THE DRY LAYER.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE PLAINS. LOW TEMPERATURE SPREADS LEADS TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
PERHAPS EVEN REACHING RECORD LEVELS BY FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
THIS WEEKEND AS MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION, BUT DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. IT DOES
APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE
AREA AND COOL THINGS DOWN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXACTLY HOW MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS NBM 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILES FOR HIGHS CONTINUE TO HAVE A 20-25 DEGREE SPREAD FOR
SUNDAY WITH LOWER, BUT STILL SIZABLE, SPREAD THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CREATE VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 30-
35 MPH THIS MORNING GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20-25 MPH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20-25% RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE LOWEST AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.
CONSIDERED A RED FLAG WARNING, BUT THE OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
NEAR 20% AND WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AND
LIMITED TO A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES OR ANY NEW FIRES DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL AND BURNING SHOULD BE POSTPONED.
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING AT 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
20-30 PERCENT WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN HOW FAST MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND IN HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. BOTH OF THESE VARIABLES WILL IMPACT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND OVERALL FIRE DANGER TUESDAY.
THE DRY AIRMASS HOLDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH
WINDS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE
DANGER.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FLANAGAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page