879
FXUS63 KTOP 291716
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1216 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AGAIN MONDAY, COOLER BY
MID WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THEN WARMER ON FRIDAY, BEFORE
COOLING OFF AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO SET UP FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
- THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LINE. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF AK, TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WAS NEARLY ZONAL.
THE 7Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A RIDGE OF THIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTH TX,
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS ACROSS KS WERE FROM THE SOUTH
AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT.
A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN CO/ WESTERN KS, SO
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THE WIND WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80
DEGREES WEST. MONDAY LOOKS EVEN WARMER WITH MID 80S SOUTHEAST
AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
AS THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE INCREASING, AS A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA, TUESDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS
THURSDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
OK EARLY THURSDAY AND RICHER MOISTURE RETURN AT 850MB NORTH OF
THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM H5 TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
DCVA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT ALONG WITH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE TX PNHDL, TRACKS EAST-NOTTHEAS ACROSS OK INTO
SOUTHWEST MO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING AND END TO THE SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 50S. RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY MORNING AND CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW THURSDAY HIGHS
TO REACH INTO THE 50S, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AS THE H5 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT, PLUS THE H5 TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DCVA AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS
WILL AID IN ASCENT FOR RAIN AND ELEVATED STORMS ALONG AND POST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY, DUE TO LOW-
LEVEL CAA, CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 50S NORTHEAST,
TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
THE GOOD NEWS WILL BE THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LREF FORECASTS THE EASTERN COUNTIES
GETTING THE MOST RAINFALL WITH THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF AROUND 1 INCH,
AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE OVER 2 INCHES. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS WITH THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF NEAR 0.5"
AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF 1 INCH. THE NBM TOTAL QPF SHOWS THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 2.3" ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA,
WITH MOST OF EAST CENTRAL KS GETTING OVER 1 INCH. THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ARE FORECAST TO GET BETWEEN 0.4" TO 0.75"
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONTINUES. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DECREASE AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING, BUT A NOCTURNAL LLJ COULD CREATE SOME LLWS AT THE
TOPEKA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY FOLLOWING SUNRISE. GUSTS INCREASE MIDDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH TO KEEP MINIMUM RHS IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE. HOWEVER GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY STILL CAUSE ANY FIRES TO BE
UNCONTROLLABLE WILD FIRES GIVEN THE DRY FUELS. TUESDAY WE WILL
SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL
SWITCH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST, WHICH COULD MAKE
FIGHTING ANY GRASS FIRES MORE DIFFICULT WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
THE RANGELAND FIRE INDEX WILL ONLY BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY TODAY.
MONDAY, THERE MAY BE MORE AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, RHS
WILL BE HIGHER, AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...TEEFEY
FIRE WEATHER...GARGAN
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