006
FXUS63 KTOP 301634
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1134 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-RECORD HIGHS FORECAST TODAY.
-ELEVATED FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH TUESDAY.
-RAIN CHANCES RETURN, WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CA COAST.
ZONAL FLOW WAS NOTE ACROSS THE CONUS.
THE 7Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CO/KS
BORDER. A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS SD AND EXTEND
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO NORTHERN MI. SOUTHERLY WINDS,
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z TUE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH. THE
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S. A FEW LOCATION MAY HIT THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHER PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY ON TUESDAY. LOW-
LEVEL CAA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z. MOST
CAMS SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DRY, WITHOUT ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA, BUT ONCE
THE FRONT HITS THE RICHER MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX,
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND INTO CENTRAL MO, A LINE OF STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE EVENING HOURS. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAYBE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CA ON TUESDAY, THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US BY 12Z WED. A STRONGER MID LEVEL JET ACROSS AZ
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A LEE SFC LOW
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL. AT 850MB A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO, SOUTH INTO WEST TX,
THIS CAUSE THE 850 WINDS TO BACK TO MORE TO THE SOUTH. RICHER
MOISTURE AT 850MB WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT AND THE
RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CAUSE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE COUNTIES, WHICH WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTHWEST
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOUR OF
WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR ABOVE THE LFC WILL BE CLOSE TO 40 KTS, THEREFORE
SOME OF THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL, MAINLY QUARTER SIZE BUT IF SOME
OF THE ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP MID LEVEL ROTATION, THE HAIL COULD BE
LARGER. THE 12KM NAM SHOWS 1200-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WEDNESDAY, TOWARDS THE LATE MORNING THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO NE. THE RRFS CAM ALONG WITH THE ECMWF, SHOW
THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN OK, LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THE RESULTING
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT MAY
MAY REACH TO A HOLTON TO MHK, TO ABILENE LINE DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE WARM
SECTOR MAY BE SURFACE BASED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
CURVED HODOGRAPHS PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SURFACED BASE SUPERCELL,
THAT MAY GROW UPSTREAM INTO A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KS. ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
SEE ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING, WHICH MAY PRODUCE SEVER HAIL.
THERE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SURFACE PATTER BUT IN ANY EVENT WE WILL SEE SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS,
HIGHS MAY WARM INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT.
THURSDAY, THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN MN/IA/NORTHERN MO. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS AND WE SHOULD SEE THE RAIN END FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID 50S
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
FRIDAY, A MORE AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO SOUTHERN NE. THERE MAY BE
MORE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY. AS DCVA OVER SPREAD WESTERN KS,A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS WILL OVER
SPREAD EASTERN KS TOWARDS 00Z. STRONG ASCENT AND A COLD FRONT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL ADD SURFACE CONVERGENCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR, THE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
POSSIBLE SUPERCELL. HOWEVER, IF WE STAY CLOUDY WITH ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY, WE MAY NOT SEE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT'S WAY TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
FAVORABLE, IF WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WE WILL SEE RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ENTERING WESTERN KS.
THE RAIN AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND THERE MAY BE LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE WARD SECTOR, WITH
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT.
LETS LOOK AT THE TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LREF SHOWS A 60 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 1 OR MORE
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS ONLY A 30 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF 1" OR MORE INCHES. THE NBM (NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS) HAVE 2
INCHES OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL KS WITH 3 TO 4 INCH
QPF TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF THE CWA HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES HAVE 0.75 TO 1 INCH OF QPF.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TRENDS AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOME ZONAL. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER WIND SHEAR DEVELOPS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TO AROUND 60KT TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TURBULENT MIXING WILL PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM DECOUPLING WITH GUSTS PERSISTING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
TODAY:
EXPECT A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RHS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30
TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH AT TIMES. DUE TO THE WINDS AND DRY FUELS,
FIRES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TUESDAY:
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH-NOTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25
MPH. THE WINDS SWITCH WILL MAKE FIGHTING ANY FIRES DIFFICULT.
MINIMUM RHS WILL BE IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE.
WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, RHS
WILL BE HIGHER, AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 30:
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 85 (1943) 88
CONCORDIA 89 (1917) 88
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...WOLTERS
FIRE WEATHER...GARGAN
CLIMATE...TEEFEY
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