801
FXUS63 KTOP 310543
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1243 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTH AND BRINGING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY (50-90%) TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
A NEAR ZONAL PATTERN WAS NOTED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS PER THE 19Z
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ELSEWHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS SEEN OVER THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED OFF THE WEST COAST.
SURFACE OBS PLACED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHEAST SD WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HAS KEPT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH.
FOR TONIGHT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN CAPPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS FAR SOUTH. AND THE LATEST
CAMS KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION WELL NORTH OF THE STATE LINE
ACROSS IA. SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMITING HOW MUCH WE COOL OFF.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE TWEAKED THE LOW FORECAST UP WITH READINGS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH. AGAIN AN EML IS PROGGED TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING,
THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN LARGE PART TO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE NBM HAS SOME PRETTY HIGH POPS TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND INITIALLY I THOUGHT OF CAPPING POPS AT
70 PERCENT. BUT THE HIGH POPS WERE SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINED
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AS MORE THAN 70 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLES
WERE DEVELOPING MEASURABLE PRECIP. SO OPTED TO KEEP THE NBM POPS AS
IS.
THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE NBM. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH STORMS WILL BE WHETHER THEY CAN STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE LEVELS.
MUCH OF THE MACHINE LEARNING OUTPUT FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES SEEM TO
FOCUS THE BETTER RISK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AND THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. SO IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BUT FEEL
LIKE THE MARGINAL RISK IS APPROPRIATE BASED ON THE 12Z MODELS. THERE
IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW BAND OF 2+
INCHES OF RAIN.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHER
PLAINS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z ENSEMBLES SHOWS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR INTENSITY. HOWEVER THE MACHINE LEARNING
OUTPUT IS SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHERE FROM THE
OZARKS TO EASTERN KS. AGAIN THE NBM LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE WITH
IT'S POP FORECAST AND HAVEN'T MADE ANY CHANGES. THINGS SHOULD DRY
OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET 1500-2000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL CAUSE 30 TO 35 KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR DESPITE SOME 20 TO 30
MPH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD END BY 14Z TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO
20 TO 25 KTS. THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITONS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...GARGAN
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