870
FXUS63 KTOP 311143
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
643 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY (50-90%) WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. A POSITIVE TILT H5 TROUGH WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CA COAST.
THE 7Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL IA/MN
BORDER, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NE, THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS NE INTO SOUTHWEST NE, AND
SOUTHEAST WY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THERE WAS A 50-60KT
LLJ ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LLJ WAS CAUSING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. I
WILL PUT A 10 TO 14 POPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS FOR THESE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR IF MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
THE FRONT ACROSS NE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 12Z
AND THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THOSE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FROPA. I HAVE TOPEKA AT 83 DEGREES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT
1 PM. WHILE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AFTER THE FROPA, TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY FALL INTO 70S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS.
MOST CAMS DO NOT SHOW SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT,
UNTIL THE FRONT IS SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 22Z. THE 12Z NAM AND
NSSL ARW HAVE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE GFS MODEL
DEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND IS PROBABLY THE REASON WHY THE NBM HAS
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35, AND
EVEN UP TO I-70 FROM TOPEKA AND POINTS EAST. I'M LEANING MORE TO
THE CAM SOLUTIONS AND EVEN THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
CAMS.
TONIGHT, THE H5 TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND SHIFT
EAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THE STRONGER MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CAUSE A LEE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TX. THE 850MB WINDS WILL BACK MORE
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ADVECT RICHER GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CAMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE GFS SHOWS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING, AND EXPANDS THE SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL KS. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MORE ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
EAST TO THE CWA ACROSS MO BUT BUILDS THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WESTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL KS AFTER 12Z. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MUCAPE 800-1200 J/KG FOR SOME OF THE ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 6Z HRRR FORECAST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEEPEN ACROSS WESTERN
KS. THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OK LATE TONIGHT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HAS THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
INTO SOUTHERN NE BY 00Z.
THE 6Z HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND SOME CURVATURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH. IF DISCRETE
STORMS DO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CWA, THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WINDSHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THESE DISCRETE STORMS WILL FORM INTO LINE
SEGMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY STILL HAVE SOME
EMBEDDED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM DISCRETE
STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND I CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. MOST CAMS ALONG WITH THE GFS
AND NAM12 SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF A COUNCIL
GROVE TO HOLTON LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AFTER 00Z MOST CAMS SHOW THE LINE SEGMENT OF STORMS CONGEALING INTO
A LINE OF STORMS DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
FRONT, AND ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM A LINE OF STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE H5 TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST IA AND THE TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEN DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWER 60S NORTH AND MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THAT THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
12Z FRIDAY. THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL TRY TO RETURN BEFORE
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KS. THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE MUCH RAINFALL
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE SHOWER SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
LOOK COOLER AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS KS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S NORTH, WITH
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THE LREF TOTAL QPF SPREAD FROM THE 25TH PERCENTILE TO THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. STARTING FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING SHOWS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA RECEIVING 1.75" TO
2.7", THE CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA RECEIVING 0.8" TO 1.8",
AND THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA RECEIVING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF RAIN FROM 0.25" TO 1.25"
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT DRY CONDITONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY, AND LOWER TO UPPER 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DECREASED DOWN TO 45 KTS AT
2000 FEET ACROSS KTOP AND KFOE BUT KFOE WINDS ARE 15KTS GUST TO
23KTS, SO I TOOK OUT THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AT KFOE. KTWX VAD IS
NOW BELOW 40 KTS AT 2000 FEET, SO I TOOK THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OUT AT KMHK. THE WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST AT 13KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22KTS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 8Z, ALONG WITH A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
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