393
FXUS63 KTOP 011137
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AND WILL RETREAT BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS.
- THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. IF THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE
TO MOVE BACK NORTH, THEN THE HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
- FRIDAY FEATURES ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. AN AMPLIFIED
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 6Z SURFACE MAP, SHOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN LAKE ERIE, WEST-SOUTHWAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IL, THEN SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL MO, INTO SOUTHEAST KS, AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OK INTO WEST TX. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS
CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL, NORTHEAST. AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH DAY BREAK, AS THE FRONT SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH THE STEEPER
ISENTROPIC SURFACES MAY OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL. MOST OF
AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH, TO LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
ALMOST EVERY CAM NOW HOLDS THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THE DCVA
OVERSPREADS THE CWA WE WILL SEE RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGIONS.
THE MUCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 1200-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL, EAST
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS. THEREFORE, THIS EVENING
THE ELEVATED STORMS WITH 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
SEVERE HAIL. IF THE ELEVATED STORMS ROTATE THIS EVENING, THEY
MAY PRODUCE LARGER HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS UP TO 2 INCH SIZE.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY, AS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KS
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NE BY 12Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID MORNING HOUR
OF THURSDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BUT THE RICHER
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE 12Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL
WIND VEER MOVER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE H5 TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO MO AND IA AFTER 12Z THU.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE FRONT
LIFTING NORTH A BIT FASTER, AND IF THE FRONT WERE TO REACH THE
SOUTHEAST OR EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA, THEN SURFACE
BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THESE
STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
CONGEAL MORE INTO A LINE OF STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IF
A DISCRETE SUPERCELL WERE TO MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT THEN THE
ENHANCED BAROCLINIC HORIZONTAL VORTICITY COULD BE TILTED AND
STRETCHED BY A STORM'S UPDRAFT. BUT I'M LEANING TOWARDS THE CAM
SOLUTIONS, KEEPING THE WARM FRONT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
TRAINING OF ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZE FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NOT REAL CERTAIN WHERE THIS LINE OF
ELEVATED STORMS WILL SET UP. SEVERAL OF THE CAMS SHOW THE TRAINING OF
ELEVATED STORMS TO BE ALONG I-35 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
THE SREF SHOWS THE A 80 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-35. THERE MAY BE HIGHER TOTALS IF TRAINING OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF RIVERS AND LOW-
LYING AREAS.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S NORTH
TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, FORECASTING THE H5 TROUGH
OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE H5 TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE RICHER MOISTURE MAY ONLY MAKE IT BACK TO PORTIONS OF THE
EAST CENTRAL KS, AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY 12AM SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
WARMER AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
EXPECT COOLER WEATHER AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE
THE COLDEST, WITH MID 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S FAR EAST TO LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
MONDAY, WE MAY WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S,
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THE CEILINGS ARE DROPPING, KFOE NOW DOWN TO IFR, AND KTOP AND
KMHK DOWN TO MVFR. I EXPECT KTOP AND KMHK CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN
TO IFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE TERMINALS WILL KEEP IFR
CEILINGS UNTIL 00Z, THEN SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND CEILINGS WILL RISE BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME MINOR GUSTS.
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH VEERING
WINDS TO THE SOUTH AT 12 TO 16 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 26 KTS
AFTER 6Z.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
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