475
FXUS63 KTOP 020651
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
151 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 6 AM AND NOON TODAY THAT
COULD BECOME STRONG. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.
- A BREAK IN RAIN/STORMS BUILDS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A COLD
FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS.
- DRY AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION COMING MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS, MAINLY COMING FROM CONVECTION IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL LIFT HAS INCREASED AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, EXPECT
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE WITH
VERY SMALL CHANCES (<10%) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 4-6 AM. AFTER 6 AM (GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 6 AM-12 PM), THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH SBCAPE STILL IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE, 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS AND 0-1 KM BUILD
SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS, A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP.
THAT SAID, FORCING NEEDED TO GET STORMS INITIATED SEEMS RATHER
WEAK AND DIFFUSE WITH THE BEST FORCING COMING ALONG A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST KS. IF A FEW
STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SURFACE BASED, A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BECOME REALIZED. CANNOT RULE OUT A
TORNADO WITH ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM, BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR
ORIENTATIONS PREVAILING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DOES NOT SEEM
GREAT FOR TORNADOGENESIS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF KANSAS BY
1 PM THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S -
PERHAPS A TOUCH COOLER CLOSER TO THE KS/NE BORDER WHERE STRATUS
WILL TAKE LONGER TO BURN OFF.
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A LEE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. EFFICIENT WAA
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LOW TO MID 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PUSHING
BACK INTO EASTERN KANSAS. BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY,
CAPPING WILL HAVE SLOWLY ERODED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SEVERE PARAMETERS OF 1500
J/KG OF SBCAPE, 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND STEEP ML LAPSE
RATES WILL AGAIN OPEN A WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS HOW SOON CAN CONVECTION FIRE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. SOME CAMS HINT AT AN EARLIER START - AROUND THE 1-3
PM TIMEFRAME - WHILE OTHERS HOLD OFF CONVECTION UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN THE FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR
EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS. IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
FOR STORM INITIATION TO STRUGGLE UNTIL THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN BETTER COOLING ALOFT FROM THE EJECTING UPPER LOW CATCHES
UP WITH THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SCENARIO WHERE
STORMS FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG AND NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR QUICKLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE AND MOVING OFF INTO
MISSOURI. DEEP SHEAR VECTORS NEAR-PARELLEL TO THE COLD FRONT
ALSO INDICATE STORMS QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE. A LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND AND BRIEF TORNADO THREAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
INITIAL STORMS THAT INITIALLY REMAIN ISOLATED. ONCE STORMS HAVE
CONGEALED, THE THREATS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS 1 INCH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF DOUGLAS, FRANKLIN
AND ANDERSON COUNTIES BY 7-8 PM FRIDAY.
CAA DOMINATES SATURDAY'S WEATHER AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE
50S AND LOW 60S WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BY SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS - TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITION LOOKS TO
BUILD IN BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
THURSDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. STORMS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS
AROUND 4-6 AM WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO IFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STORM MOVING NEAR A TERMINAL IN THE 7-12P TIMEFRAME
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW SO KEPT OUT MENTION.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF
THE WEST. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE TO AROUND OR BELOW 10
MPH BY SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page