511
FXUS63 KTOP 022259 AAA
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
559 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY FRIDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY IN EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME MAY BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND
CONCERN.
- MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE BULK OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY TODAY
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN IOWA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY. A CAPPING
INVERSION OVER INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING STRATUS
INTO PLACE AROUND SUNRISE AND COULD EVEN RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE OR
WEAK SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING, BUT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD STILL
BRING HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MOST. THE STRATUS DOES GIVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
EASTERN KANSAS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
THE EAST BY 04Z. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS BEFORE THE STORMS
GROW UPSCALE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME. AGREE WITH SPC ON REDUCING
HATCHED HAIL AND WIND GIVEN THE ABOVE THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO STILL
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. STORMS SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF LESS THAN AN INCH DESPITE THEIR HIGH
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. NBM CHANCES FOR AN INCH ARE 20-40% WHERE
THE PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHEST.
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NEAR-
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SUNDAY BUT FALL BACK AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS A
MODEST UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAVE COULD BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOL ENOUGH TEMPS
TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW MENTION, THOUGH NBM CHANCES FOR ANYTHING
MEASURABLE ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO APPROACH OR PERHAPS REACH FREEZING SO
THOSE WITH EARLY TENDER VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE NOTE. A LONGER
WAVELENGTH TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WITH THE TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF LOW CLOUDS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MOISTURE WILL RETURN
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z AS WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1KM TURN ESE AND THE SFC
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH BRINGING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
TO AROUND 60 BY 12Z TO THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL ACT TO SUPPORT
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT NORTH INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VIS
CONDITIONS GIVEN HOW STRONG THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ON TIMING
OF ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE BEFORE SUNRISE.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME TOWARD 18Z WITH SCATTERED
TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT APPEARS TO
MOVE THROUGH TOP/FOE AROUND 21Z WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...OMITT
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