117
FXUS63 KTOP 031649
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (30-50%) THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY IN SEVERITY COVERAGE AND LOCATION. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH A LESSER
PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL PERIOD RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL
WARMUP AND MODEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
MESOSCALE
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL KS IS
INDICATIVE OF THE INHIBITION HAVING ERODED AWAY. THE BETTER HEATING
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KT. THE QUESTION REGARDING SEVERITY
IS WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 14KT WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF A RIGHT MOVER. SO IT IS NOT CLEAR
IF THE FRONT WILL BE DISRUPTIVE OR OF UPDRAFTS CAN RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. IF STORM MERGERS OR MINIMIZED, THERE CAN BE SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE WITH THE CONVECTION LEADING TO A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THE
LINEAR NATURE OF THE CONVECTION ON THE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO FAVOR
DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHETHER A STORM
CAN AVOID MERGERS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW GOOD LOW LEVEL TURNING,
BUT THEY ALSO HAVE A STRONG INFLECTION JUST ABOVE 700MB. THIS COULD
BE DISRUPTIVE FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS MODELS PROG EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
TODAY AND THIS EVENING
PV ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS WY EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE
UPSTREAM MID LEVEL PERTURBATION IS SPREADING EAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS INITIAL WAVE APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE, THE
WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KS LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA,
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS.
THE DEPTH AND LONGEVITY OF THE STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON
REMAINS THE MAIN DETERRENT IN MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS BY THE MID
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP EASTERN KANSAS
AFTER 1 PM WHEN THE CAPPING INVERSION ERODES. AND WHILE THERE IS
CONSISTENCY AMONG CAM GUIDANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY'S LOCATION
AND NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING ALONG IT, DIFFERENCES IN
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND OVERALL SEVERITY IN STORMS IS UNCLEAR. BY
AROUND 21Z, IF WE CAN OBSERVE SOME CLEARING PRIOR TO THE FRONT,
FORECAST CAPE MAXIMIZES AROUND 3000 J/KG WHILE BULK 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
30-40 KTS. SHEAR VECTORS ARE MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY,
BOLSTERING CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
EVENT. GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR/CURVATURE NOTED ON HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF
THIS LINE HOWEVER SUGGEST A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST BY 02Z.
SATURDAY - TUESDAY
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SFC WINDS BY SATURDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S. HIGH TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 60S FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP
OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY, LENDING TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.
STILL MONITORING A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE KS/NE BORDER. NBM PROBS
ARE OVERALL ON THE LOW SIDE FOR QPF (LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES) WHILE
SNOW PROBS ARE LESS THAN 20% AND GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY
UPPER PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE AGAIN AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE FORCES
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ARE MODEST DURING THIS PERIOD, PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER STORMS
BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED AS TS IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WILL USE CAMS AS A FIRST GUESS ON
TIMING. THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT THE FROPA SHOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIP CHANCES. CIGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND 3KFT. THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE FROPA AS WELL.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MESOSCALE...WOLTERS
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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