080
FXUS63 KTOP 050742
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
242 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FROST LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY PATCHY FROST ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
- GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY AND
LIKELY 70S WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
- ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN SIGNALS MODEST RAIN CHANCES AFTER EARLY
TUESDAY. MOST LIKELY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOCUS ON LATE THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SUNRISE. OBSERVED TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOW-MIDDLE 30S WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, IF NOT ALREADY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM 10-15 MPH, HIGHEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS TODAY ARE
PRETTY UNIFORM IN THE MIDDLE-UPPER 60S, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON
MONDAY AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS A WARM FRONT BISECTING THE STATE.
LOCATIONS NEAR THE NE BORDER ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 50S,
STRETCHING TO THE UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL KS.
NEXT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION ARRIVES EARLY
TUESDAY. AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
TRACKS THE OPTIMAL FORCING FROM NE INTO NORTHERN MO, POTENTIALLY
CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN KANSAS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY FALL TO
THE MIDDLE 30S, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOW POTENTIAL FOR A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX, MOST LIKELY RAIN. LACK OF PERSISTENT MOISTURE AND
LIFT HOWEVER LENDS TO DECENT CONFIDENCE FOR MINIMAL IMPACTS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NE LATER TUESDAY, WARM
ADVECTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONGER UPPER LOW PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FORCES A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A POIGNANT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW AND SEVERAL UPSTREAM
PERTURBATIONS BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CURRENT
PROBABILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OR SEVERE WEATHER ARE LOW AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR AT SITES AS LIGHT WINDS PICKUP TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR A FEW
HOURS AFT 15Z.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22
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