552
FXUS63 KTOP 051822
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
122 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW COOL NIGHTS AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH
60S TO LOW 70S.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. PATCHY FROST WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARMER TO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ZONE. MANY DETERMINISTIC
MODEL RUNS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW SOME CHANCES (30-50%) FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-70. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TUESDAY MORNING,
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS.
NOTHING WOULD ACCUMULATE SHOULD SNOW DEVELOP THOUGH. WEDNESDAY,
A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WE MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A
RESULT. WE THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
SLOW MOVING/DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS IS TYPICALLY A WETTER PATTERN FOR US, WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AMPLE GULF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND BECOMING VARIABLE UNDER CLEAR SKY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page