538
FXUS63 KTOP 060459
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1159 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW COOL NIGHTS AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH
60S TO LOW 70S.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT. PATCHY FROST WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARMER TO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ZONE. MANY DETERMINISTIC
MODEL RUNS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW SOME CHANCES (30-50%) FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-70. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TUESDAY MORNING,
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS.
NOTHING WOULD ACCUMULATE SHOULD SNOW DEVELOP THOUGH. WEDNESDAY,
A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WE MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A
RESULT. WE THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A
SLOW MOVING/DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS IS TYPICALLY A WETTER PATTERN FOR US, WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AMPLE GULF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR AT SITES THIS FORECAST PERIOD, FOCUSING ON A FROPA AFT 14Z
THAT WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS. THE FRONT
SLOWS BY MID AFTERNOON, AS MID CLOUDS SPREAD SOUTHWARD. VFR
CIGS BELOW 10 KFT ARE POSSIBLE AFT 00Z WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT TAF MENTION.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...22
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