295
FXUS63 KTOP 061101
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
601 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER EMBEDDED TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING,
BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND MOSTLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF I-70.
- AFTER MORE MILD TEMPS RETURN IN THE 70S AFTER TUESDAY, PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY - SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
QUIET AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER SLOWS AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD, BISECTING THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM 15-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH. MID CLOUDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NE AND NORTHERN MO
TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NARROW
BAND OF FORCING STAYING NORTH COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
IN NORTHEAST KANSAS. HAVE THEREFORE REDUCED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR. TEMP PROFILES AFT
06Z TUESDAY SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN,
HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
WAVES TO TRAVERSE THE PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
INITIAL TIME PERIOD TO HIGHLIGHT IS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGH DUE TO
TIMING OF THE WAVE WITH THE FRONT AND DEGREE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
SPREAD OF QPF IN THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE IS IN UPWARDS OF AN INCH
WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATION OF THE LIKELY POPS IN
THE FORECAST.
WHILE A WASHOUT IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND, THE STALLED
FRONT NEARBY COUPLED WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ARRIVING UPSTREAM
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WARRANTS MODEST POPS FOR THE
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT WELL ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TO SUGGEST A ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING
OR HEAVY RAINFALL. NEVERTHELESS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
LOW, BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR AT SITES WITH SCATTERED MID CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH
A FROPA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER TERMINALS BY 14Z,
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS. WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY
23Z AS A SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH NE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, HOWEVER LOWER VFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TOWARDS SUNRISE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22
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