966
FXUS63 KTOP 070459
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1159 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE WEATHER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
WIDESPREAD CHANCES COMING THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THE FLOODING RISK IS LOW, BUT A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE AREA HAS WARMED INTO THE 50S AND
LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS COOLER NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER AND A TOUCH
WARMER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY, A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE WY ROCKIES WILL PUSH INTO THE
PLAINS, USHERING IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. FURTHER TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST, MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
DEEPEN WITHIN A SATURATED PROFILE AND INCREASE SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES.
THAT SAID, CAMS HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFIRM THAT THIS
SHOULD STAY OFF IN MO, NE AND IA BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW
FLAKES BEING SEEING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
KANSAS. NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BY WEDNESDAY, A LARGE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND HELPS
TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES. CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL REMAIN HIGH AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUOUSLY ADVECT ACROSS THE PLAIN WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID-LEVEL LIFT COMES BY
THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SOUTHERLY TROUGH
ADVECTS IN MID-LEVEL VORTICITY. THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WITHIN
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
AREA AND OPEN A WINDOW FOR STRONG STORMS BY SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW THIS FAR OUT, BUT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
AND COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW, THE SET UP IS
THERE. A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN AND STORMS MAY COME MONDAY BEFORE OUR
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREADS FOR TOTAL RAINFALL
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH TO UP TO 4
INCHES, SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE
ROUND AFTER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. SINCE RAINFALL IS FALLING OVER A
LONG DURATION AND PWATS NOT OVERLY CONCERNING, NOT WORRIED ABOUT
MUCH OF A FLOODING CONCERN. ALL THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR TERMINALS AS A PASSING WAVE MAINTAINS GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS AND BROKEN MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KS TO IMPACT SITES NEAR 12Z,
BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...22
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