171
FXUS63 KTOP 070757
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH
A STALLED FRONT WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER
VORT MAX IS CROSSING OVER SOUTHEAST NE INTO NORTHERN MO THIS
MORNING. OTHER THAN THE INCREASING CLOUDS, NORTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY TODAY. MID CLOUDS STICK AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN A RANGE OF HIGHS NEAR
60 DEGREES IN FAR NORTHEAST KS, TO THE LOW 70S IN CENTRAL KS. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR PORTIONS OF OTTAWA
AND DICKINSON COUNTIES AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FROM 15-20 MPH
SUSTAINED. RH VALUES COINCIDINGLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20TH
PERCENTILE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND
OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CAMS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING. WIND PROFILERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE (30-40 KTS EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR) WHILE MUCAPE IS GENERALLY FROM 500-1000 J/KG. AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
60 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KS. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE
IN WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS WHERE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION FROM A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET LEND TO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP BY THURSDAY
EVENING WHERE LIKELY POPS SEEM REASONABLE. PWAT VALUES BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT THIS TIME FROM 1-1.2 INCHES AREA WIDE, SUSTAINING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE
INCOMING UPPER LOW. THESE VALUES ARE IN THE 75TH-99TH PERCENTILE
RANGE FOR APRIL, INCREASING THE PROBABILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION APPEARS TO REPEAT ON
FRIDAY - SATURDAY EVENINGS, PERHAPS AS LATE AS SUNDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. UNFORTUNATELY, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
EXHIBIT HIGH VARIABILITY IN QPF AND SUBSEQUENT AREAS OF LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION SO WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL, OTHERS COULD A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR TERMINALS AS A PASSING WAVE MAINTAINS GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS AND BROKEN MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN KS TO IMPACT SITES NEAR 12Z,
BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22
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