629
FXUS63 KTOP 201048
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1-8 PM TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
COOLING DOWN TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RIDGING HOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A POTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT A SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND
HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE DAY WILL GENERATE SOME ASCENT. A DRYLINE
ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT, ALTHOUGH MODEST, SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A CAPPING INVERSION SLOWLY ERODES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COME AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
EVENT BEING FOUR DAYS OUT, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAIN IN
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW, PLACEMENT OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES, STORM
MODE AND EVOLUTION, AND MOST LIKELY HAZARDS. STAY TUNED!
A COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE
ZONAL FLOW KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10KTS TO START THE
PERIOD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY DROP OFF
AFTER SUNSET, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15KTS
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AROUND 06Z AS THE LLJ
INCREASES TO 40KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY; EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WERE
YESTERDAY, HAVE TRENDED DEWPOINTS TOWARDS DRIER GUIDANCE WHICH
CREATES RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15- 20 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A LACK OF GREEN-UP FOR AREAS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR KEEPS FUELS RECEPTIVE TO RAPID
FIRE SPREAD AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR, SO HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THIS AREA FROM 1-8 PM TODAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
EVEN WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ034.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FLANAGAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page