773
FXUS63 KTOP 211708
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1208 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
- COOLER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFF-AND-ON CHANCES FOR
RAIN. HIGHEST CHANCES (60-70%) COME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE PLAINS THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN US COAST. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS REMAINED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT,
LEADING TO ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS WHICH HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING.
ONCE MIXING COMMENCES THIS MORNING, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
QUICKLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
UPPER LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY RESIDE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA INITIALLY, BUT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE EJECTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW STRATUS
BUILDS IN THURSDAY MORNING WITH A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS THURSDAY MORNING, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. A DRYLINE ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT, ALTHOUGH MODEST, SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. KEY FACTORS THAT WILL DICTATE THE
SEVERE RISK THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING REMAIN UNCERTAIN, INCLUDING
HOW LONG THE CAP WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY, HOW LONG STRATUS WILL
LINGER, HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE ADVANCES, AND HOW FAST THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE CAP MAY HOLD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL BETTER
FORCING ARRIVES WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING, THEY COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE THE
STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WITH STORMS
LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS AND POSE A
DAMAGING WIND RISK. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET THURSDAY
EVENING ELONGATES THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH, SUPPORTING THE
THREAT FOR MESOVORTICIES TO FORM ALONG ANY LINE SEGMENT THAT
DOES EVOLVE. THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAILS THAT STILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS, SO BE SURE TO STAY UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST!
A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE
ZONAL FLOW KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH A STRONGER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING HIGHER (60-70%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAK NEAR 30 MPH
BEFORE SUBSIDING SHORTLY AFT 00Z. BELIEVE THE LOW LYING AREAS AT
KTOP SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 KTS INITIALLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
MVFR STRATUS DECK MOVES NORTHWARD, INCREASING WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS
AS THE CLOUDS ARRIVE AFT 08Z. MVFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO VFR AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTH WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST, BECOMING GUSTY OVER 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...22
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