220
FXUS63 KTOP 211902
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
202 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MOST LIKELY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A LESSER RISK FOR TORNADOES.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH HIGHS IN LOW 70S THIS WEEKEND.
- OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN OCCURRENCE IS HIGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT TOWARDS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CONTINUES TO
BUILD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH OKLAHOMA IS OBSERVED BY A SWATH OF
LOW CLOUDS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS STRATUS DECK
SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE IN THE EVENING, BECOMING OVERCAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER INSULATES TEMPERATURES SOME
TOWARDS FAR EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S WHILE
LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH SHOULD SEE THE SUN RETURN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRATUS DECK RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION, LENDING TO THE INITIAL UNCERTAINTIES IN AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX ARRIVES IN THE EVENING. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE AND
SUBSEQUENT STORMS FORMING ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT STILL VARIES
AMONG GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS BEING MOST ROBUST WITH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BEING FURTHER WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE EVENING. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME, ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO. MOST LIKELY
HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORM MERGERS AND
MARGINAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A LINE OF STORMS TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AS WELL GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES RANGE FROM 30 TO
40 PERCENT, DROPPING TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR GREATER THAN 1
INCH.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
INDICATIONS FROM MODELS OF ANOTHER EMBEDDED TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
THE COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIED IN WHERE THE FRONT
ENDS UP, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. NBM HAS CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY, INCREASING TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY FOR PRECIPITATION,
HOWEVER OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITHOUT POIGNANT FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAK NEAR 30 MPH
BEFORE SUBSIDING SHORTLY AFT 00Z. BELIEVE THE LOW LYING AREAS AT
KTOP SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 KTS INITIALLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
MVFR STRATUS DECK MOVES NORTHWARD, INCREASING WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS
AS THE CLOUDS ARRIVE AFT 08Z. MVFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO VFR AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTH WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST, BECOMING GUSTY OVER 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...PRIETO
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