790
FXUS63 KTOP 230527
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY IN FAR NORTHERN KANSAS, FORMING INTO A LINE OF
STORMS AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEAST.
- LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS
THURSDAY WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
- ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY EVENING
AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXACT
DETAILS ON EVOLUTION AND HAZARDS OF THESE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
EXPANSIVE RIDGING STRETCHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL, EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS
SOUTHERN OK HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR STRATUS CLOUD DECK AND
SCATTERED LIGHT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AS CLOUDS
SCATTER BY LATE AFTERNOON, WARMEST TEMPS ARE NOTED IN FAR NORTHERN
KS NEAR 80 DEGREES, COOLING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN FAR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CLOUDS MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS A LEAD SFC TROUGH FORMS
OVER WESTERN KS BEFORE ENTERING NORTHEAST KANSAS SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS, PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED STORM, ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE, HOWEVER SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL KS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHERN NE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES QUICKLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS DIRECTLY BEHIND
THE FRONT, PROGGED TO REACH REPUBLIC AND CLOUD COUNTIES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 MPH BY
THIS TIME SO EXTREME FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS, GIVEN THE VERY LOW RH WHERE FUELS
REMAIN DRY. INITIAL CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ISOLATED AS CAPE VALUES
ARE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WHILE BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KTS. A
SAMPLING FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT EXHIBIT OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL
SRH TO SIGNAL A TORNADO RISK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, AND MAY BE MORE
CONFINED TO LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THE ANTICIPATION OF A DECENT COLD POOL TO
FORM AS STORMS CONGEAL TOGETHER IN A LINE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE TWO PRIMARY HAZARDS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF TORNADO WITH THE CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STORMS IN THE
EVENING, HOWEVER THAT WINDOW OF TIME WOULD BE SMALL IN THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE THE LINE ORIENTS MORE PARALLEL TO THE SHEAR VECTORS
AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR CONVECTION TO
TRAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-70,
WHERE SOME AREAS COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OF RAIN. ITS PROBABLE WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, RESULTING IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
STORMS EXIT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY RESIDE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR NOW, HOWEVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
KS MAY BE IMPACTED AS A STORMS CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER TRACKING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
FOCUS TURNS TO SUNDAY WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TO OCCUR AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS. CAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WHILE FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR ALL HAZARDS WITH STORMS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DETAILS ON TIMING OF THE WAVE AND LOCATION
OF THE FRONT/SUBSEQUENT SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS, BUT MAY BE WORTH
CONSIDERING IF OUTDOOR EVENTS ARE PLANNED ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
STILL A SIGNAL FOR SOME -DZ OR -SHRA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN REDUCTION TO VSBY IS LOW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR
CIGS SCATTER OUT AT KMHK AROUND 20-22Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE LIKELY
TO HOLD AT KTOP/KFOE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXACT LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR; STORMS
MAY FORM NEAR KMHK BEFORE FORMING A LINE AND IMPACTING KTOP/KFOE BETWEEN
23-02Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR AT ALL SITES WITH WEAKER
WINDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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