310
FXUS63 KTOP 231916
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
216 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND MOVE EAST.
VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
IS POSSIBLE. FLOODING ALSO CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS.
- A BRIEF WINDOW FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY SET UP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS WINDS CHANGE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
BUT OVERALL THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE MORE IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM BUT DETAILS
STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FOCUSED ON THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENTLY, THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND THE BEST FORCING
EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WHERE STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AREAS. THE DRYLINE IS FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE WITH STRONG CAPPING SAMPLED FROM THE 18Z
KTOP SOUNDING. MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN UNDER A QUITE
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS BUT CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER WESTERN
AREAS. PERHAPS THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE CAP TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY
OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STORMS IN AN AREA OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO INITIATE DUE
TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AND MORE LONG LASTING INSOLATION THAT HAS
TAKEN PLACE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP SO ANY STORMS THAT
BREACH THE CAP SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. IF THE CLEARING CAN CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION AS WELL. WITH ENVIRONMENTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SUPPORT OF TORNADOES IF THE WINDS CAN BECOME LOCALLY BACKED
WITH INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR STORMS BUT ALSO 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS
APPEAR TO BE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE ANY DEVELOPING
LINE OF STORMS LATER AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE ALONG THE FRONT. LONG
STORY SHORT, EXPECT INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAINLY POSSIBLE
OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THEN STORMS CONGEAL INTO A
LINE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HRS AS THEY ADVANCE EAST FOCUSING MORE ON THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND POSSIBLE FLOODING BUT ALSO QLCS TYPE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THE HAIL THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD MOTION.
TWO CONCERNS WITH EASTWARD MOTION IS THE CAP STRENGTH COMBINED WITH
PRIOR RESIDENT TIME OF THE STRATUS. WHAT IMPACT DOES THAT HAVE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF STORMS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING
TO SEE STORMS INITIATE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THEN STRUGGLE WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
THIS WEEKEND, THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO MORE QUICK MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE TIME
OF DAY THE FORCING SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL BE CRITICAL
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STORMS AS WELL AS THE SEVERITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT OVERALL AND SOME AREAS CONTINUE TO SEE CLEARING
BUT THESE HAVE TENDED TO QUICKLY FILL BACK IN WITH THE INVERSION
HOLDING STRONG ALOFT AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THE
TRENDS POINT TO BKN TO SCT CIGS THAT REMAIN ABOVE VFR LEVELS INTO
AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS WEST OF KMHK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THROUGH SO HAVE TEMPO
GROUPS INDICATING THE BEST TIME FRAME WITH STORM POTENTIAL TO IMPACT
TERMINALS. WINDS CHANGE TO THE WNW POST FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...DRAKE
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