519
FXUS63 KTOP 242311
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
611 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
- SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIABILITY IN THE DETAILS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RISK WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
LATE THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL JET OF
50 TO 60 KTS EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT BASIN EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NE
AND SD. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
CA/NORTHWEST MEXICO, EAST ACROSS TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY.
THE 17Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MI,
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MO, THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN OK INTO THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL.
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ACROSS KS
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL FILL AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO INTO NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
NORTHEAST TO MID 70S SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM H5 TROUGH MOVING EAST ONTO THE NORTHWEST MEXICO COAST LINE.
AS THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE TRUE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN TX INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. A DRY LINE
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN OK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS.
MOST CAMS ALONG WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SHOW A MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KS INTO
NORTHEAST KS BY 00Z SUN. THE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE PERTURBATION ALONG
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL GULF MOISTURE FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG, AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 KTS COULD CAUSE SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS MAY WEAKEN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE SURFACE HEATING.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS AZ. AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND RICHER
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECT NORTHWARD. A FEW ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND MAY PRODUCE SEVERE SIZE HAIL.
SUNDAY THOUGH MONDAY:
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
SURFACE DRYLINE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST FROM THE TX PNHDL INTO WESTERN
OK AND SOUTHWEST KS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS. THE DISCRETE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LINE
OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT AS DCVA OVERSPREADS THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. I CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS, IF THEY DEVELOP, MAY BE SEVERE.
OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AHEAD
OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS, THEN THIS LINE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 45-55
KTS, ML/MU CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THE NAM12 FORECAST HAS CURVED LOW-
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. BUT IF THERE IS A LINE OF STORMS, THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITHIN THE LINE MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL. ALSO, IF THE
SFC-3KM SHEAR BECOMES MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE (QLCS), THEN
MESOVORTEX TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE MAY BE POSSIBLE. IF THE
LINE INITIALLY REMAINS MORE SCATTERED WITH CONVECTION, THEN THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KS, BEFORE THE STORMS CONGEALS INTO A LINE.
THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY. THEN
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OK AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL TX. A SECONDARY H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS CENTRAL KS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY VEERING
TOWARDS THE EAST THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED BY LATE
PERIOD, MAINLY AT KMHK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE FOR STORMS WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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