630
FXUS63 KTOP 251730
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY TOWARDS CENTRAL
KANSAS. WIND/HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A
FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.
- COLD FRONT LIKELY PUSHES MONDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER RISK JUST TO OUR
EAST, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
WILL FOCUS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AS THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN IMPACTFUL WEATHER ACROSS THE NEXT
WEEK. CURRENTLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SUB 1000 MB SURFACE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER TODAY, PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, GIVEN A WEAKLY
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SHEAR LOOKS SOMEWHAT WEAK, AT 25-30 KTS, BUT WITH A
VEERING WIND PROFILE IT'S PLAUSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND POSE A SEVERE THREAT. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
CLOSEST TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, THOUGH SOME
WIND THREAT COULD PERSIST FARTHER EAST IF ANY LONGER LIVED CLUSTER
OF STORMS EVOLVES. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO NEAR THE
FRONT GIVEN PLENTIFUL NEAR SURFACE VORTICITY, OR WITH ANY CELL THAT
STAYS DISCRETE LATER INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES. BUT FOR THE MOST PART, WEAKER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO
KEEP LARGE HAIL AROUND 1" AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
HAZARDS.
FOR SUNDAY, A STRONGER UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PHASE
WITH THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH AND LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL EVOKE STRONGER LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS, WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
STREAM NORTHWARD. THE STRONGEST 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS DO NOT APPROACH
EASTERN KS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH HEIGHTS
SUNDAY EVENING STAYING LARGELY NEUTRAL. AS SUCH, THERE IS STILL A
FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST
KS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS 700 MB WAA STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE RISK WITH THESE, MAINLY WIND AND HAIL BUT WITH BACKED SURFACE
WINDS SUPPORTING SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH LOOKS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT FOCUSING MUCH ON CAMS AT THIS RANGE, GIVEN
LARGE SPREAD IN OUTPUT AT 48+ HOURS OUT. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THOUGH SUPPORTS THE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN. THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD PLACE THE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS RIGHT ACROSS
OUR AREA, PROVIDING FAVORABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ADDITIONALLY,
STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS INITIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KS APPEARS TO HAVE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO STAY MAINTAINED INTO EASTERN KS, WHETHER IN
THE FORM OF MORE OF A LINE OR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. STILL TOUGH TO
SAY HOW WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL BE, BUT DO THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL LAST WELL INTO
THE NIGHT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
BEFORE ML CIN INCREASES TOO MUCH, THOUGH THIS WOULD BE CONTINGENT ON
A SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL PERSISTING. PLENTY OF TIME FOR DETAILS TO
COME MORE CLEAR, BUT CERTAINLY A SETUP TO WATCH.
BY MID-DAY MONDAY, A VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DRYLINE
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EAST OF US AS WELL. HOWEVER STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON A COUPLE
OF LOW-PROBABILITY SCENARIOS THAT COULD ALLOW A BIT OF A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TO LINGER. THE FIRST SCENARIO WOULD BE IF THE DRYLINE
SLOWS BY ANOTHER FEW HOURS, ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN FAR EASTERN KS WITH INITIALLY DEVELOPING STORMS. THE
SECOND SCENARIO WOULD BE IF SOME INSTABILITY CAN POOL RIGHT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THE DRYLINE, ALLOWING A FEW STORMS WITH MAINLY
A HAIL THREAT TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHEAST KS. ASIDE FROM THESE TWO
LOW-PROBABILITY SCENARIOS, FOR MOST MONDAY SHOULD BE A NICER DAY AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR STEADILY MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
BEYOND MONDAY, INCREASING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP
A SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN PLACE. THE JET STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE WAVES PASSING THROUGH, SO WE'LL SEE SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. NOT SEEING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY THOUGH, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT VERY LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
WINDS OUT OF THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
ENE INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED TO RELAX TO GENERALLY 10 KTS OR BELOW.
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS AROUND KMHK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT LIFT TO NORTHEAST WITH THE SOUTHERN FLANK MOVING
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE KMHK TERMINAL. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE
ONLY GONE WITH TEMPO MENTION FOR SHOWERS. THIS EVENING THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, SO HAVE
INCLUDED A PROB30 MENTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS, THERE
COULD BE LOW END MARGINAL VFR CIGS OR EVEN A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS
WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS
WHICH COULD IMPACT THE KMHK TERMINAL BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...DRAKE
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