128
FXUS63 KTOP 251956
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
256 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS.
WIND/HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A
FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MINOR CHANGE IN THE MONDAY PERIOD FOR NOW AS THE SOME
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY BE SLOW ENOUGH TO
MOVE EAST THAT A FEW MORNING STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. WOULD EXPECT MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OVERALL LOW CHANCE
OUTCOME.
- COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A COMPLEX 24 TO 36 HRS LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP BEFORE A SOLID FRONTAL
SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TAKING MUCH OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
CURRENTLY, THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES NORTH OF
THE CONUS JUST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS INTO AND THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A COMPLEX SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. AS OF THIS HOUR, A
LOW AMPLITUDE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SUFFICIENT ASCENT WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IS JUST
ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONE STORM BRIEFLY LOOKED IMPRESSIVE
RIGHT ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH A SEMI-PERSISTENT BWER AND STRONG UPDRAFT CORE BEFORE
SUBSEQUENTLY COLLAPSING. GENERALLY, A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS OVER
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS. MAINLY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SCATTERED OVER
CENTRAL INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS WITH OVERALL WEAK ASCENT IN
PLACE. HOWEVER, INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND THUS 1-2K J/KG INSTABILITY INTO THE
AREA, CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STORMS THAT MAY BECOME SEVERE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WOULD STILL ANTICIPATE MAINLY HAIL
AND WIND THREATS BUT A TORNADO COULD BE POSSIBLE WEST MAINLY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOST PROBABLE JUST WEST OF THE TOP FORECAST
AREA. RIGHT NOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES INTO THE AREA REMAIN LOW
OVERALL WITH HAIL AND WIND BEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS. THE SEMI-
PERSISTENT AREAS OF SHOWERS ONLY HELP TO KEEP THIS IDEA IN CHECK AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.
SUNDAY, COULD START WITH MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LLJ MAINTAINS A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS ONE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO THE ROCKIES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ACT TO BRING ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AREAS BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE SUNDAY EVENING HOURS. REGARDING
THE MORNING STORM POTENTIAL, COULD SEE MAINLY A HAIL THREAT AS
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED. CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO BE ON THE DOCKET WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE WORKS
INTO THE AREA TAKING ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL INCREASE
MORE QUALITY MORE MOIST TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHER OVERALL
THETA-E AIR ADVECTING NORTH THUS INCREASING THE DEWPOINTS TO AROUND
70 ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN CONCERN REALLY RAMPS UP INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AFTER DARK AS THE LLJ INCREASES
TO 50KTS OR POSSIBLY HIGHER. CONCERN BECOMES NIGHTTIME TORNADO
POTENTIAL TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW ITSELF WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS IS INDEED THE SCENARIO,
THEN EXPECT A BUSY EVENING IF STORMS CAN STAY SEMI-DISCRETE WHICH
COULD BE A REASONABLE SCENARIO WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS LARGELY
ORTHOGONAL OFF THE COLD FRONT AS THE DRYLINE ITSELF MAY JUST BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. AGAIN, VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 2
INCHES, DAMAGING WINDS 70 MPH OR GREATER WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENT
THAT MAY DEVELOP IF STORMS CONGEAL AND ALSO SUPERCELLULAR NIGHTTIME
TORNADOES COULD BE IN PLAY ESPECIALLY WITH THE ELONGATED NATURE OF
THE HODOGRAPHS AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP. FLOODING DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE
ALL THE HIGH ON THE LIST SINCE IT APPEARS STORMS SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE ONCE THEY BEGIN AND THE LACK OF OVERALL SHEAR VECTORS
BEING PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
MONDAY MORNING MAY BE A POTENTIAL GOTCHA FOR ELEVATED HAIL IF THE
FRONT DOES SLOW SLIGHTLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND ENOUGH
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY REMAINS ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THIS AGAIN
APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT A TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WITH HIGHS AND LOWS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEK AHEAD AND
POSSIBLY RIDGING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CHANCES FOR
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER-WISE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
WINDS OUT OF THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
ENE INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED TO RELAX TO GENERALLY 10 KTS OR BELOW.
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS AROUND KMHK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT LIFT TO NORTHEAST WITH THE SOUTHERN FLANK MOVING
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE KMHK TERMINAL. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE
ONLY GONE WITH TEMPO MENTION FOR SHOWERS. THIS EVENING THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WORK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, SO HAVE
INCLUDED A PROB30 MENTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS, THERE
COULD BE LOW END MARGINAL VFR CIGS OR EVEN A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS
WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS
WHICH COULD IMPACT THE KMHK TERMINAL BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...DRAKE
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