259
FXUS63 KTOP 270353
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1053 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COMPLICATED SEVERE WEATHER SETUP TONIGHT. THIS SECOND ROUND WILL
CARRY THE LARGEST SEVERE THREAT, BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE A THE MAIN THREAT. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
- A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHIFTS EAST AFTER 8 AM.
- COOLER PATTERN ARRIVES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEHIND MONDAY'S
COLD FRONT. A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST OK. A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM ALVA, OK, EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK, JUST SOUTH OF THE
KS/OK BORDER.
CURRENTLY A QLCS WAS LOCATED ACROSS DICKINSON COUNTY, SOUTHWARD TO
NEWTON KS. THIS QLCS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS THROUGH THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, ELEVATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE QUARTER
SIZE HAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
THERE IS A COMPONENT OF 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE
OF STORMS MAY PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE FOR WEAK AND BRIEF MESO VORTEX
TORNADOES AS THIS LINE MOVES INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS QLCS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THE QLCS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA AFTER 4 PM AND WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KS IS NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF FRONTOLYSIS
AND THE NEWER CAMS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK AND TRACKING NORTHEAST TO ICT, THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT TO REACH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE
DRYLINE WILL PUNCH NORTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST OK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS
LATE THIS EVENING. THE CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK, MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS. THE
NORTHERN SUPERCELLS MAY REACH INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA. IF THESE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED, THEY MAY
PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES, GIVEN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG
SFC-3KM LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE UNCERTAINTY IN A SUPERCELL BEING
SURFACE BASED MAY PRECLUDE ANY DAMAGING TORNADO THREAT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. ELEVATED SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS.
THESE ROTATING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KS WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR AND CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF RIVERS AND CREEKS. THEREFORE A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PORTION OF EAST
CENTRAL KS.
THE NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES IF TRAINING OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, BUT THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THESE TRAINING SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA.
THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA
DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
WE WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND
SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGHS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TX. THERE MAY BE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
H5 TROUGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD UNTIL ABOUT 13Z. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE (40%) WITH ALL STORMS. PROB30 GROUPS
HAVE BEEN CHANGED TO TEMPO GROUPS AS THE CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT
TERMINALS IS OVER 80%. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AS STORMS IMPACT
TERMINALS, WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS (BKN030) WILL HANG AROUND KTOP AND KFOE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH IMPROVEMENT BY 01Z TUESDAY. WIND WILL REMAIN
FROM THE EAST TONIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT BY 14-15Z.
WIND WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGING 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND WILL THEN
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY EVENING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ039-KSZ040.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...RIW
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