926
FXUS63 KTOP 111908
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
208 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE.
- WARM TEMPERATURES DOMINATE, WITH NEAR-RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW FROM ROUGHLY THE RED RIVER SOUTH TO THE GULF WILL KEEP MOISTURE
QUALITY WITH THIS FRONT LOW WITH A MODERATE CAP IN PLACE ABOVE IT.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS NOT VERY STRONG, BUT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. MLCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS COULD SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S TUESDAY ONLY BACK OFF A CATEGORY OR TWO FOR WEDNESDAY AS
MODIFIED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL LOOKS RATHER LOW FOR ANY NOTABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE UNTIL ANOTHER MODIFIED COLD FRONT COMES
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS TOO COULD BE MOISTURE-STARVED. THURSDAY'S
HIGHS COULD BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON CLOUD PERSISTENCE WITH NBM RANGES
RATHER HIGH AT THIS RANGE. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD COME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW DOMINATES
WITH BETTER GULF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. AHEAD OF THIS MOISTURE, THE
WAA BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE OF
CLIMATOLOGY TO BRING HIGHS CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES, INCLUDING RECORD
WARM LOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY THOUGH MODEL SPREADS IN THE LARGER SCALE INCREASE
NOTABLY AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING. WIND
DIRECTION MAY VARY SLIGHTLY, BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD DOMINATE
WITH LITTLE SPEED CHANGE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THIS
FORECAST. HAVE KEPT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT A
SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AROUND 10Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 15
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 95 (1944) 93
CONCORDIA 91 (1944, 2012) 92
RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 15
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 71 (1977) 68
CONCORDIA 69 (1962) 65
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 16
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 95 (1931) 91
CONCORDIA 93 (2019) 91
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...POAGE
CLIMATE...DRAKE/POAGE
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