690
FXUS63 KTOP 131842
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
142 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
- WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN BUILDS IN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
DAILY STORM CHANCES.
- SOME STORMS EACH DAY (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) COULD BE SEVERE. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SYNOPTIC FEATURES PRESENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDE A LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW OVER THE PNW WITH WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER CYCLONE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS PRESENT WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN US RESPECTIVELY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL US HAS BROUGHT US A COOL AIR MASS
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
TODAY'S WEATHER. EXPECT A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES, AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
IN THE LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO
OUR EAST RETURNING LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH. WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LLJ AND MID-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MAY
GIVE WAY TO SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS NOT HIGH
WITH POPS HOVERING AROUND 15%.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AS DIURNAL
HEATING PUSHES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THAT SAID, CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
MAIN FOCAL AREA FOR ANY POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG A DRYLINE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME MLCIN TO
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION. IF A STORM CAN GET ROOTED AND
STRENGTHEN, IT COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BECOMING A CONCERN. THURSDAY'S STORM SET UP IS FAIRLY
CONDITIONAL ON STORMS DEVELOPING. BY THE EVENING, CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ INCREASES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD HELP
TO GENERATE SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE AGAIN IS NOT HIGH THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP, BUT A STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. FRIDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR CONDITIONS SET UP TO THURSDAY,
HIGHLIGHTED BY ANOTHER AFTERNOON CAP OVER THE AREA. PARAMETERS FOR
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG - ONCE INITIATED - WILL BE PRESENT BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF PARCELS WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR. IF A STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME STRONG, LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN A LEE
CYCLONE ACROSS THE HIGH SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW,
WAA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S
AREA WIDE. MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE GULF WILL BE NOTED AS WELL
AND WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM SEEMS TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW INTO EASTERN KANSAS. WITH DIURNAL WARMING AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY HELPING TO ERODE MLCIN, PARCELS
BEING AIDED BY THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
BEGIN TO REACH THEIR LFCS. PARCELS WILL LIKELY QUICKLY WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 7.5+ DEGREE ML LAPSE
RATES. SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL (AROUND 30 KNOTS) SO STORM MODE MAY STAY
AS MULTICELLULAR FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING POSING A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SEVERE STORM CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS
TO EJECT OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ENTER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HELPING TO INCREASE WIDESPREAD LIFT OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL FURTHER REINFORCE AND RESTRENGTHEN THE LEE CYCLONE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE GULF - POSSIBLY BRINGING IN UPPER
60 TO LOW 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS SET ACROSS KANSAS, THE
MAIN QUESTION THAT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN IS WHERE STORMS WILL
FIRE. CURRENTLY, THE BEST LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT TO OUT WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. IF THE UPPER LOW SPEEDS UP A BIT, THE FORCING
MECHANISM MAY PUSH EAST BY PEAK HEATING HOURS MOVING THE MAIN HAZARD
AREA OVER EASTERN KANSAS. ALL THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION FOR STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY IS NOT HIGH AND WILL
REMAIN DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND POSITIONS
OF FORCING MECHANISMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BY TUESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING IN FROM
THE PNW MAY KEEP OUR PATTERN ACTIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR TAFS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEFORE EXITING TO OUR
EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL RETURN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR FRIDAY, MAY 15
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 95 (1944) 94
CONCORDIA 91 (1944, 2012) 95
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY, MAY 16
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 95 (1931) 90
CONCORDIA 93 (2019) 91
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
CLIMATE...GRIESEMER
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