439
FXUS63 KTOP 142258
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
558 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT
SOME LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- NEAR DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, EACH DAY WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SOME STORMS BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
- NEAR-RECORD WARMTH ACCOMPANIES STORM CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WAVE EJECTING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, LONG WAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND STREAM OF MOISTURE COMING OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA REGION. THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES HAS FURTHER
DEEPENED A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN KANSAS THAT HAS HELPED TO
FURTHER TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
KANSAS. THIS HAS LED TO GUSTY SOUTHERN WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN MOISTURE AND WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR. SURFACE OBS ACROSS KANSAS SHOW
THE SWATH OF 50-60 DEGREE TDS STRETCHING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL TIGHTEN AMIDST THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH, HELPING TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL PAIRED WITH TDS CREEPING INTO THE UPPER
50S WILL PUSH MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY HIGH LCLS AND INVERTED V PROFILES SO
CONVECTIVE THREATS MAINLY LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH PERHAPS
SOME HAIL LATER AS STORMS MOVE INTO RICHER MOISTURE. THAT SAID, A
STRONG EML STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE SO
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH. RECENT RAP
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MIXING AND INCREASING LIFT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS
WEAKENING THE CAP A BIT BY THE LATER AFTERNOON AND WITH DECENT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH, THIS COULD BECOME A
FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS STORMS MOVE TOWARDS THE
KS/MO BORDER THIS EVENING, EXPECT THEM TO BECOME ELEVATED AND
MAINTAINED BY THE LLJ. THIS SHOULD KEEP RISKS TO LARGE HAIL, MAINLY
MAX SIZES OF 1-1.25".
AFTER THURSDAY, NEAR-DAILY CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH, STORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY, ANOTHER FAIRLY CONDITIONAL STORM SET
UP WILL BE EXPECTED WITH PARAMETERS FOR STORMS IN PLACE, BUT LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING AND CAPPING IN PLACE LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION
AND COVERAGE OF STORMS. THAT SAID, BY THE AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 500MB JETSTREAK NORTH
OF KANSAS WILL HELP TO POSSIBLY ERODE SOME OF THE CAPPING NEAREST
THE KS/NE BORDER. THIS PAIRED WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE WARM
FRONT IN NORTH-CENTRAL KS COULD GENERATE SOME CONVECTION WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 30-40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR, STEEP ML LAPSE RATES AND
2500-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
BY SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MORE INTERESTING PATTERN
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS
OUT OF THE PNW, PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN GULF JET OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY
WILL SEE SOME WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON PARAMETERS OF 2500-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 30-
50 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR DEVELOP. AGAIN, IT COULD TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ENVIRONMENT TO GET RID OF THE EML IN PLACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS POSES UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL STORM COVERAGE BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER EJECTION OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OUT
WEST BEGINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST SOLUTION WITH
THE WAVE AS THE EURO AND CANADIAN ARE A BIT SLOWER. THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION FAVORS A HIGH-IMPACT DAY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY
OPPOSED TO SUNDAY AS WELL AS SEVERE STORM CHANCES PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BY THE TIME THE UPPER WAVE PASSES TO OUR EAST. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION DEPICTS MORE OF A SQUALL LINE EVENT MONDAY PM
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WHERE THE EURO AND CMC DEPICT A DRYLINE SET
UP AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS ALOFT
AND AMPLE GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE, SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY IN
THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UP IN
THE AIR AT THE MOMENT. STAY UPDATED WITH THE FORECAST IN THE COMING
DAYS TO CATCH THE MOST RECENT UPDATES.
IN ADDITION TO THE STORM CHANCES, NEAR-RECORD WARMTH WILL BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS SEEING UPPER 90S. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT WILL GO BACK TOWARDS NORMAL WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR
70-80 DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LLWS
BETWEEN 04-08Z AS A 50 KT LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD, BUT THE CHANGE IN
SPEED AND DIRECTION IS GRADUAL WITH HEIGHT, LEADING TO MORE
LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE. CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR TERMINALS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT THUR MAY 14 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR FRIDAY, MAY 15
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 95 (1944) 93
CONCORDIA 91 (1944, 2012) 94
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY, MAY 16
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 95 (1931) 92
CONCORDIA 93 (2019) 94
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR SUNDAY, MAY 17
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 92 (1907) 90
CONCORDIA 96 (1996) 98
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY, MAY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 94 (1975) 91
CONCORDIA 94 (1967, 1988) 93
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
CLIMATE...GARGAN
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