330
FXUS63 KTOP 161704
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1204 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
- SEVERE STORM CHANCES STILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY
BUT WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AREAS. SOME MAY NOT SEE STORMS AT ALL BUT THE RISK IS STILL PRESENT
IF STORMS DO FORM SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE. EXPECT MAINLY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT WITH A LOW END THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAINLY SUNDAY.
- MONDAY STILL NEEDS TO GET THE MOST ATTENTION FOR THIS PERIOD. STILL
QUESTIONS TO HOW THE DAY UNFOLDS BUT EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, POSSIBLY INTENSE
TORNADOES AND A FLOODING RISK TO SET UP BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AND PART OF THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW AND UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION WITH MAINLY QUASI-ZONAL TO SLIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE MEAN WESTERLIES ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF
REGIONS. THE FEATURE OF PRIMARY CONCERN IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT THE CURRENT TIME. THIS IS THE TROUGH THAT WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE
THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION PROGRESSIVELY PEAKING INTO
MONDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING THE LLJ IS VEERING AND WEAKENING AND HAS SHIFTED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL KS. A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS PERSIST OFF AND ON JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
TODAY, THE SLIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW COMPONENT TO THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EML TO REMAIN IN PLACE. ALL PRIMARY
OPERATIONAL MODELS OF THE NAM, GFS, ECMWF, CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST THAT
EVEN THROUGH MONDAY, CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS ALOFT AT SOME
DEPTH. GENERALLY, THAT DEPTH BECOMES MORE SHALLOW EACH SUBSEQUENT
PERIOD WITH INCREASED WAA AND INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES REACHING 15C UP TO 30C ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK TO HOVER AROUND OR EXCEED PREVIOUS RECORDS THROUGH MONDAY. NBM
SPREADS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WIDEN SIGNIFICANTLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO LIFT POLEWARD WITH EACH DAY NOW FEELING
NOTICEABLY MORE MUGGY AND HOT AS A GENERAL TREND. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT THINK
OVERALL LOW ENOUGH TO THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME WITH WIND PROBS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT EXCEED STANDARD ADVISORY
LEVELS.
THE SEVERE THREATS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY STILL FOCUSED HIGHEST NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, INTENSE HEATING TO AROUND OR
EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY SET UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AREAS. IF STORMS FORM OR OTHERWISE
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST OFF THE DRYLINE FURTHER POSITIONS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AREAS, THEN EXPECT THAT HAIL
AND WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. IT
IS POSSIBLE MOST DON'T SEE STORMS TODAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY WITH THE
EML STILL HOLDING STRONG THROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MANY OF
THE CAMS SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY OUTCOME FOR STORMS THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT ARE DUE TO A POSSIBLE MCS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN KS LATE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY THEN APPEARS TO BE MAINLY CAPPED WITH THE IDEA OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN KS
THEN STORMS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE
WEAKENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL CAP HOLDING STRONG OVER WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS.
MONDAY HAS A FEW EARLY DIFFERENCES FROM PAST CYCLES. OVERALL, THE
TROUGH APPEARS AS THOUGH IT MAY SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
WITH A LEAD WAVE BEING THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM TO HELP STORMS
FIRE ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND OFF THE DRYLINE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MANY DIFFERENCES TO TAKE SHAPE
AS THE TROUGH HAS YET TO BE SAMPLED BY THE UA NETWORK OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, NAEFS MEAN SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ANOMALIES
SUGGEST THAT STRONG WAA INCREASES INTO THIS PERIOD, HELPING TO
SUPPORT A DEEP MOIST GULF AIRMASS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REGARDLESS OF WHERE IT ACTUALLY BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. WITH THE STRONG WIND AND DEEP MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS,
MOST MODELS HAVE EHI INDEX VALUES ABOVE 2-3 WITH SOME UP TO AROUND
8! THIS IS ONLY ONE WAY OF SUGGESTING THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE IN
PLACE FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES TO FORM WITH ANY DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THAT FORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DRYLINE. STILL LOOKING AT
SHEAR VECTORS MAINLY ORTHOGONAL OFF THE DRYLINE AND FORECAST TRIPLE
POINT AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
CONSISTENT AREA OF INTEREST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THEN
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THIS GENERAL AREA, THE OVERALL SHEAR
VECTORS MAY BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENT. EXPECT A
MORE MESSY STORM MODE AND POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DISCRETE STORMS TO
GROW UPSCALE AS THEY MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE MOIST
RICH ENVIRONMENT THEN NOT ONLY SUPPORTS EARLY INSTANCES OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIAL STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND BUT THEN
MAY FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT BECOME A FLASH FLOODING RISK.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS BUT THE IDEA OF MONDAY STILL
HOLDING THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WHICH HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT TREND AS WELL, SO EXPECT MONDAY TO END THE SEVERE THREAT
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE 40S AND
50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR MID WEEK
BEFORE STEADILY RISING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MODELS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHEAST NEB
REMAINING NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING. SO THE HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR TS LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. SOME OF THE RECENT CAMS
ARE WANTING TO DEVELOP TS JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THEN TAKE THEM NORTH PRETTY QUICKLY. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS, BUT THINK IT IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY TRY TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AS THE RAP KEEPS
THE BETTER SATURATION RIGHT AROUND 3KFT AND THE NAM'S BIAS TO BE TO
COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TURBULENT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 16
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 95 (1931) 91
CONCORDIA 93 (2019) 93
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 17
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 92 (1907) 90
CONCORDIA 96 (1996) 98
RECORD HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 17
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 73 (1996) 67
CONCORDIA 68 (1902, 1906) 66
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 94 (1975) 91
CONCORDIA 94 (1967, 1988) 94
RECORD HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 71 (1911) 70
CONCORDIA 72 (1911) 67
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
CLIMATE...DRAKE
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