015
FXUS63 KTOP 171101
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
601 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN KANSAS.
- WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, SHIFTING INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL SEVERE
THREATS ARE POSSIBLE.
- AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY-SATURDAY TO THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXIT NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA
AND IOWA THIS MORNING, WHILE RESIDUAL SHOWERS LINGER BEHIND THE
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT MCS. SHOWERS DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY. LOW LEVEL TROUGHING
EJECTS FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN KS LATER THIS MORNING,
INDUCING A DEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM
CENTRAL TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS WHERE SOUTH WINDS REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED. FOCUS SHIFTS TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SETS UP WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SFC
BOLSTER INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WHILE THE CAPPING
INVERSION DIMINISHES. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR AFTER 5 PM, EXPANDING INTO A LINEAR SEGMENT AS IT TRACKS EAST
OVER FAR NORTHERN KANSAS. DECENT CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON FORECAST HODOGRAPHS, DUE TO THE INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR, PARTICULARLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES IN THE EVENING.
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE INITIAL
CONCERNS, FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS BY EARLY EVENING. IF STORMS BACKBUILD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ONCE AGAIN, LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS
EVENING.
THE HIGHER, MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLEAR EASTERN KANSAS BY MID MORNING, ALLOWING THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER FOR REDEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
INSTABILITY RANGES FROM 3500-5000 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AXIS, COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION. AS
THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS FROM CO INTO THE PLAINS, CONVECTION
BECOMES VERY LIKELY FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUNDINGS
IN THIS AREA EXHIBIT MINIMAL INHIBITION BY THIS TIME AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL (GREATER THAN 2
INCHES) GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE AMOUNT OF MLCAPE AND DAMAGING WINDS.
MAIN QUESTION REMAINS ON THE TIMING OF INITATION AND HOW QUICKLY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL MERGE INTO A LINE AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY MITIGATE THE STRONG,
LONG TRACK TORNADO THREAT, ALBEIT THE SUPPORT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
ELONGATES THE HODOGRAPHS AND INCREASES LOW LEVEL SRH UP TO 300
M2/S2. OVERALL, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE IN THE EARLY
EVENING, THE THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES INCREASES FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS. OTHERWISE, THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND WEAKER
TORNADOES BECOME A CONCERN AS A STRONG MCS FORMS. INCREASING PWAT
VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND BACKBUILDING OF STORMS BEHIND THE SFC
FRONT IS INDICATIVE OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY WHERE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE, HOWEVER
THIS MAY CHANGE IF WE SEE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING.
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EXIT WITH THE FRONT BY TUESDAY MORNING,
RETURNING DRY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 25 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE UPPER 60S. BROAD TROUGHING TO THE WEST
BRINGS ADDITIONAL WAVES INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S RETURN TO THE REGION. CHANCES ARE REFLECTIVE OF THE SHOWERS
WITH LESSER PROBS FOR THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY OBSERVED BY
THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE. WHILE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
LOCATION IS PRESENT LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS A SIGNAL
FROM THE MIDLEVEL MEAN FLOW FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO
PERSIST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR AT TERMINALS WITH MAINLY A WIND FORECAST THIS PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
AFTER 13Z FROM 20 TO 27 KTS SUSTAINED, GUSTING NEAR 40 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS ISSUANCE, MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS TSRA NORTH OF THE TERMINALS LATE
THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
SUNDAY MAY 17
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 92 (1907) 90
CONCORDIA 96 (1996) 97
MONDAY MAY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 94 (1975) 91
CONCORDIA 94 (1967, 1988) 89
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
SUNDAY MAY 17
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 73 (1996) 69
CONCORDIA 68 (1902, 1906) 67
MONDAY MAY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 71 (1911) 70
CONCORDIA 72 (1911) 64
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ058.
DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...DRAKE/22
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