957
FXUS63 KTOP 030527
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (15-30% CHANCE) ON
WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN COME THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PERTURBATION IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM BELLEVILLE TO JUNCTION CITY TO COUNCIL GROVE. WHILE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS WEAK, CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL
HAIL, BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HIGH
PWATS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS UNDERNEATH ANY OF THESE STORMS
BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THIS EVENING WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE VARIES IN HOW LONG INTO THE DAY AND HOW FAR EAST
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST, BUT THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY GIVEN A
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO TODAY. A SHORTWAVE WORKS TO PUSH THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EAST AND BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LEADING TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WHICH BRINGS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WEAK SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL, WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE IT WON'T BE A
WASHOUT, GEFS AND ENS QPF MEANS ARE 1- 1.5" ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
A SIGNAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON WHERE CONSECUTIVE ROUNDS
OF STORMS TRACK. TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR STRATUS TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH NEAR OR A BIT AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS
ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BIT WEST OF THE MAIN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, ANY
STATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE, PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...REESE
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