873
FXUS63 KTOP 031710
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1210 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- OVER 60% CHANCE AREA-WIDE OF AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED SPOTS MAY PICK UP 2-3" TOTAL.
- TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
WE CONTINUE TO SEE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS, AS
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS ACTING
AS A BLOCK. A BROAD AND MESSY UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS VICINITY, MADE UP OF A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS. ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE, EASTERN KANSAS REMAINS UNDER
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN TURN
INCREASING AGAIN, WE'LL LIKELY SEE A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THESE SHOULD STAY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
THURSDAY AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY, WE'LL SEE TWO SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE PAC-NW UPPER LOW. EXPECTING TO SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH
SHORTWAVE. MORE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT, THOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SEEM SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY, GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT ON AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
TEXAS, ALONG WITH A GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE. SO RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY.
ACROSS THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING
RATHER HIGH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAIN. THE LREF
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY IS OVER 60% ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE SUGGESTING LOCAL SPOTS MAY
SEE IN EXCESS OF 2-3". GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING.
BEYOND SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WE SHOULD STILL SEE A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS, WITH RIDGING AGAIN STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AS SUCH, THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR A WARM PATTERN TO
CONTINUE, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EJECTING EAST FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
SOME MVFR CUMULUS HAS MOVED OVERHEAD WITH RECENT OBS AND SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR, SO HAVE
GONE WITH A TEMPO GROUP EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
STILL CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM MHK
WESTWARD, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO ISOLATED TO BE WORTH ANY KIND OF
MENTION. STORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
BETTER BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
MORNING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...PICHA
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