335
FXUS63 KTOP 040851
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
TOWARDS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS. DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
AND A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCH ALSO IN EFFECT AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY IN PLACES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY MORE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OF AN INCH OR MORE LIKELY (>70% CHANCE) FOR MOST.
- TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
TURN EVEN WARMER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
- INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
TOWARDS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS. DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
AND A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCH ALSO IN EFFECT AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY IN PLACES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY MORE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OF AN INCH OR MORE LIKELY (>70% CHANCE) FOR MOST.
- TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
TURN EVEN WARMER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING ARE DEPICTING AN MCV
OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MCV WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS ALREADY
RECEIVED 1-4" OF RAIN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEAD ROUND OF PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AS FORCING INCREASES
WITH THE MAIN MCV, EXPECTING TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN AND
STORMS DEVELOP. WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75" (NEAR THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR EARLY JUNE) AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LEADING TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, EXPECTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SET UP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A ZONE OF HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF I-70 TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR
THIS AREA. ASIDE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN, THERE IS AN INCREASING CONCERN
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE MCV. MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND THE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE TWO NEGATIVES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE
PM AS THE MCV PASSES THROUGH. MOST GUIDANCE HAS A LLJ INCREASING TO
AROUND 30 KTS BY MID-EVENING, WITH SLIGHTLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS
RESULTING IN GOOD LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE. COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND AROUND 2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE, A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND A TORNADO OR TWO. OBSERVATIONS
(PARTICULARLY SATELLITE AND SURFACE WIND) THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
WILL HOPEFULLY HELP TO GET A BETTER IDEA OF THE TORNADO THREAT.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR INITIAL
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHEAR IS A BIT WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND FORCING WEAKER, SO THINK STORMS WON'T BE QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER HIGHER INSTABILITY COULD STILL LEAD TO A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS (WIND AND HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARDS) ALONG
WITH MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK ARRIVES FOR THE DAY SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER BY SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PEAKING DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER AXIS OF AN INCH OR TWO (LOCALLY
HIGHER) OF RAIN. CURRENTLY THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOCATED
OVER EAST-CENTRAL KS, HOPEFULLY SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM THE HEAVIEST
RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME MORE
FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD TOWARDS MID-WEEK. SOME
INDICATIONS FOR OUR FIRST 100+ DEGREE HEAT INDICES OF THE SUMMER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER
WITH ANY SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS MOVING UNDER THE LONGWAVE RIDGE, BUT
PREDICTABILITY WITH THESE REMAINS QUITE LOW FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME ASSOCIATED
MVFR CEILINGS, SHOULD STAY WEST OF KMHK, BUT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES. STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT, SO WILL STICK WITH A
PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW. CEILINGS LOOK MAINLY VFR, BUT COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR A BRIEF TIME MID-DAY. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KTS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ034.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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